Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Green Shoots? We Don't Need No Stinkin Green Shoots

If the top is not in it may be next week. I'm a little nervous about what could happen if they pull the rug out. Market action is changing up here and the suckers are getting sucked in as volume declines on the last few pushes up. I think the pros are exiting (or not supporting each other as much any more).

A few weeks back I noted I would be looking for a top the week of the 28th around 936. We'll see about that. Elliott Wave gurus are looking for a higher high or one more pop up. In this manipulated market one more short squeeze may be in order, but they can't hold off the shorts forever. IMO most of the banks have completed as many secondary offerings as they can at these elevated prices and their window of opportunity is closing.

I still believe that there will have to be some sort of "external" source to really kick the market down (China or any one of the plethora that exist). Another factor would be fear. The public has witnessed the previous fall and will not want to participate in this one, thus mass exodus.

NOTE - There are two theories

1) A significant sell off (roughly 50% of this move up) then a move to a new high before the big sell off
2) This is the big sell off and market goes to new lows (seriously)

Here is the best example of how these "green shoots" have been working for you, me and Joe The Plumber and why they will fail in the long run. A simple short story that puts it all in one neat little package.

Saks Unwilling To Issue 15% CRE-Backed Notes, To Raise Convertible Instead

Have a great day!


  1. I think the Fed's deepening estimate of the GDP drop and heightening unemployment number, coupled with the crazy state of CA deciding to go bankrupt via ballot, should be sufficient.

  2. There is a 3rd scenario...sideways movement.

  3. OK - I'll give the third scenario a month max. Look at the below chart. Not happening.

  4. I see it much more likely this is the beginning of the big sell off now. 930ish from Jan and May could very well be double top.


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