I know, after that move today how can you contemplate a sell off not being upon us? Well, after my really solid call against the rising grain last night about the fall today I'd sure hate to miss this one. So, with a bit of angst I'm entering the twilight zone with this one.
I just can't bite on this climb being over yet. Maybe my chart reading prowess has dulled in my time off. What I am not seeing are clear signs a bigger turn is in on the dailys. Sure, the RSI may be finally turning at the wave 1 divergence line and some of the indicators are at a point they could be ready. That is why making this call may be going against the grain somewhat. The 30 and 60m charts are not ready to turn up just yet. The divergences were a layup call last night and made for easy pickings today (yes incarnate, TZA was the bomb).
Let's look at a daily chart so you can see my doubt. This chart is best viewed HERE. This is my daily indicator chart. It loads up all sorts of stuff in one place so you can see the whole picture. First with the boxes - blue is caution, red is sell and green is buy. I see no red on this chart, just blue and green. I noted the NYMO last night and it is now falling for sure, but on the other hand MACD and RSI are not ready. Also some of the others have not reached their top sell lines (red vertical on the top of each indicator) at this time. Sure, none of these things have to happen. It could just drop as it should. If it does, so be it. That candle today could qualify as a reversal, but not really. The 200ma support caught price and the VIX is resting on it's 200ma with a nice reversal candle (but a tempting TL still below).
Another thing is I'm not comfortable with the position of some of the indicators on the weekly chart quite yet. The 60m still has room to fall (but you know I hate that time frame). The 15 and 30m have not gone buy yet either. So why the bother? It should keep on falling right? Well, this is opex week for one (it isn't that was a mistake thanks to TTM for pointing that out) and the markets are manipulated as well. The initial reaction to the Yuan unpeg was a unique event that caused an already overbought market on the shorter time frames to become even more so.
My CPC chart adds to my conundrum cause it is in buy mode as well. (yes Rich, even the CPCE has me tied up as well.) What the heck is happening here? Will it continue to the top to complete the wave 1 the way it did in P1 and get to those same levels (the level of the move here is quite similar to that of P1 at this point). Will it stop here? It is falling which indicates buy mode and is a long way from any sort of sell signal (unless it is still in sell mode?). Is it forming new ranges for P3? (blue box). Time will tell and it will divulge the secrets when it is ready, but till then we have to be patient and let the charts come to us.
There is one thing that could make me lean south. There were two TL's on the minis that held the upside move today nicely. the retracement to 1106 was an easy call as the minis had blown out their VWAP BB and retraced right to the VWAP like clockwork at 1106. I'll keep an eye on those lines just in case.
Yes, this is a long journey with lots of twists and turns and maybe I'm getting a little greedy in my anticipation of what I want to see. Price has a way of humbling us and maybe after my hot streak over the past ...year, maybe I'm due to watch a couple of good pitches cross the plate. I'm gonna stick with what got me here though. Bottom line is we have to play the cards we are dealt. I like to anticipate the hand, but you all know I won't place a bet till the river card usually shows its self. I'd much rather nail it than make a mistake.
So, I have to kinda cop-out on a definitive call. I gave you the fall today, so cut me a little slack please. let's see what form it takes and go from there. Maybe it whipsaws at this point and the bottom simply falls out, but on the other hand with opex and the manipulation trade you never know.
GL! I'll post something if I see it.