Monday, June 7, 2010

A Shanky Sighting!

Yup, Shanky is alive and well. Thought I would hammer out a post before heading to the great white north in the am. Sorry I have been away. No, I am not gonna stop blogging or charting or any of that. I appreciate the many comments and emails with the support and kind words and thank all of you for them. I am just going on vacation. I have been swamped with work and end of school.early summer duties. Family first. I'll be back and better than ever soon. I still have a lot to bitch about and some more charting to do for you.

Minis down 9 at this time. After being as low as 1052 they have recovered to 1056. Fear is everywhere. For the EWTers, honestly, I'm not sure where their 2 up is gonna come at this time. Nothing is working for the manipulators at this time. Permabulls are finally starting to even bite on the reality that life and the markets are gonna suck for a few years.

Here is what I am looking at, I think CPC is gonna set the standard divergence and spike to levels seen in P1 (the first fall).
and I think my target that I called the week before it topped back in April is gonna be pretty darn close. Price has entered the target zone I set (just not in the time frame - yet). The 1020 to 1010 level I have been looking for may not be enough. Just wait for earnings season to get here if you think it is bad now. I honestly don't see any catalyst coming that will be able to lift the market with any significance. If for some bizarre reason it should pop here then the H&S from this level (RS would form here - that is what the blue box is for - I just kinda threw it out there - not target or anything like that) would be just nasty.
All you know that in the am I'll be hopping on a plane headed for Anchorage, and I'll be in and out of contact over the next two weeks. Yes, I'll be working and updating what I can. I suggest that you keep a closer eye on my chartbook in Stockcharts. The $SPX charts should get updated whether I do a blog post or not. I also suggest that you look at the Short and Long ETF sections there as well.

Now I bitch a little bit - 

My thoughts on the larger picture? I tried to put together a mini rant earlier and could not pull it off. Why? Not sure if it was writers block or the fact that there is so much bad stuff flying around right now I could not organize it. I'm getting a little freaked out now that all that I have been barking about for over the past year is coming home. Reality is gonna suck for everyone sooner than later. The manipulators have lost control.

Sadly because of the BS fucking administration, the Fed, the greedy ass TBTF's and Wall Street we're all truly fucked. It is no secret anymore that the MSM is controlled. If these people had any integrity they would speak the truth and let the people know what is coming, but no, instead they keep on proliferating the lies and half truths further invigorating the puss filled credit bubble that will pop very soon.

I have speculated that the first wave of P3 (or the next leg of this bear market) will be the largest of this wave. I thought we'd have a capitulative event in both "thirds of thirds" in 1 and 3in P3. Two market closures I am on record looking for. I am in the camp that in P1 (the first leg down in '08) the market never truly capitulated. If the Fed announces a rate hike soon (like possibly this week or next) look out. If the Fed has a failed auction, look out. The PE ratios never made it to the truly miserable state in '08, and they will this time.

Shanky is thinking serious deflation. I think we need to deflate to a point that wages are competitive enough for us to actually be able to manufacture things here in the states. I'm sure you have seen the wage deflation. I have tons of stories where someone that was making over 200k is now happy to make just under 100k. All this friggin nation did was consume on credit for years. Lots of credit at that. The great consumer living in the period of entitlement is DEAD!

What about inflation? If, if the greenback survives we'll have it. We'll have hyper amounts of it eventually, but not for a while. I think there is going to be massive global default first. Banks, nations, states and cities are all gonna get crushed. We can no longer borrow to fund the deficit spending that has brought us the glory times. When the cities and states start defaulting (more than they are now) on the muni market and the layoffs come you'll know the end is near. Unemployment is just getting cranked up and debt is over the top out of hand. That combination will lead us to a much more frightening version of the socialist state we already live in.

An update to the blog - I have added  Jubilee Prosperity to the blogroll. My readers know I keep a tight leash on who gets in and out of this blog. Rich cash is one of the finest people I have met on the web ever. If you all want to know who I vent to and trade ideas with everyday it is my buddy Rich in Hawaii. This dude is smart as all get out. He's become a mentor, sounding board and great supporter of mine. I highly recommend that you visit his blog and give him a big fat ALOHA when you get there. Seriously, this dude crushes it with his recommendations.

Take care. I'll post up when I can. Watch the chartbook.