Sunday, June 20, 2010

I'm Back!

OK, let's get it on! Shanky is back in the saddle and ready to rock. Problem is the HFT bots seem to have found their wings and have risen from the dead. I guess now every individual left in the markets, with a brain, understands the ramifications of what is coming down the road. Thus, the bots only have themselves to trade with in an incredibly low volume environment, so they shoot fish in a barrel and the market goes up.

Minis are up over 7 at this time (10:30). (Now up 14 at 11:30.) (LOL 15.5 now - the minis high was 1116!). The Yuan unpeg is being greeted in the Asian markets with glee! My sell call looked great for a few days and then Thursday got me. The only problem lies with the daily chart and what those indicators intend on doing. I'm a little concerned based on the position of some of the indicators, but further upside should possibly be limited if it happens (I got an 1150 tentative target right now, but that is not set in stone). The NYMO is over it's sell line and some of the others indicators are topping out, but there are some indicators that are not ready (not near ready at this point).

This is where the guessing game comes into play. Just how high can the bots take the market this time? The 30 and 60m charts have some dastardly divergences screaming sell, but that does not matter to the bots. The market has remained overbought on a ST basis for over a week now. It all depends on the daily indicators now (and when the next horrific news story pops up). We all know what is coming. Maybe they are pumping what they can out of it one last time. We all know this top will be the last great exit for years (possibly decades).

What about this corrective down are we looking for? The way Shanky likes to do things is look for patterns to form. This method serves me well, cause the earlier you can find it, the better you'll be at measuring every move thereafter (thus my wedge to the top and a timely top call - I was the first I know of to call it, label it and nail it). At this time we're in the development stage of defining the top TL and some of the interior TLs that will reside in the indicators on the major charts for this wave down. The charts are a mess right now. I'm struggling to pick up both NT resistance and support lines that I am comfortable with. The market has been really sloppy. So we're looking to see how this corrective tops out and what marks it leaves on the map to the promised land (if that is what you call hell).

So I go into a conservative short mode here. Looking for a turn, but not THE turn. Let's call it a B wave in the corrective. I think the first wave is in. When I made the timely buy call from the lobby in Denali the dailys were set with divergences. How high this corrective gets is the question. It could be topping here. Up is pure insanity, but it has been for well over a year now. The markets are rigged, we all know that. Thus, the danger still lies in calling against the bots.

I am not ready to call a larger move south here just yet. Let's get the daily MACD back over the 0 line and a few more pieces in place before we look for a larger move technically. The waiting game will also incorporate the indicators on the weekly charts. The only danger that lies in waiting on technical confirmation is that the next serious fall, given the global environment, can happen at any time. That is OK since everyone here is looking down, but not OK if you are trying to time a great entry. We all know the right entry will lead to greater profits, but the correct entry will lead to consistent profits. Let's make sure we get it right.

I'm sticking with a corrective move down sooner than later. My 30m signals rarely lie. I hate the 60m chart, but it is saying NT overbought as well. The bots had a nasty way of embedding these on the way up and they may be back to their old tricks. I like to let the dailys complete their cycles and they may be close. Have patience.So I'm saying down (yes, even with the Yuan thingy happening) then up to the top near 1150 at this time (but that target is not set in stone - Let me get back into a rhythm and try to give you something better).

I'll have a rant or two coming soon. The markets and the oil spill are both total bullshit. I'll be charting gold, NG, oil and the dollar (how bout that $89 Shanky target? (Bueller, Bueller, anyone?) Missed it by a quarter and called it a long time ago. Maybe that game is not over yet though.

Housekeeping - My Morning Posts will be sporadic thru the summer. I'll either get something out at night like now, something in the am before the bell or nothing at all. With every night now a Saturday night I'm planning on enjoying life for a month or two. I updated a ton of charts in the chartbook while watching the Open today. I hope all had a great Father's Day. I'm back till we head out for Colorado for the 4th, but I'll be working from there without much interruption.

GL and thanks for all the views and support!