Tuesday, June 1, 2010

It Just Takes A Little Push These Days

Well, my Morning Post did really well I think. SPX rallied back to backtest the wedge and then the BP and Israeli news hit the airwaves. So the government is actually contemplating prosecuting someone for the BP incident? Friggin amazing! 47 days and millions of gallons later they finally got around to appearing to get something done. Of course we all know it is only hot air being spewed and that nothing will come from it, but they at least sound tough. Speaking of prosecution, why don't they take a swing at Bernanke and Co.? I guess you don't fuck with mother nature but you can fuck it's inhabitants all you want?

Just how bad can it get? Well folks, this puppy is just getting cranked up. oil spills, earthquakes, volcanoes, potential war and a slight global financial problem are just a few of the offerings here at the Armageddon Cafe. All that and the DOW is still trading above 10,000 (barely). We must have the most resilient market on the planet! God love the USA! Prechter did a post that can be found here on ZH - Robert Prechter's Glimpse Of The Apocalypse To Come that takes doom and gloom to a new level. Some of this stuff is so over the top that you gotta wonder what goes thru this guys head when he's in the shower. I agree with a lot of his assumptions, you'll be able to pick out the stuff that is a bit far fetched even for me. 

I think this Israeli stuff will get out of hand. They are like a drunk midget, 10 feet tall and bullet proof - with nukes! So they are all bowed up over there in the Middle East.flexing their muscles like some WWE superstar. Sadly, this is not a game. Strutting peacocks get blown away. My thought are if they are shooting for fun and show, then it is only a matter of time before someone gets really pissed and BAM its on. Then we gotta get involved cause that's what we do and we're not capable of staying out of any confrontation. So, if the Israeli planes are under fire over Lebanon, then the seeds are being sewn for WWIII.We all know that every one of these recessions/depressions has ended with a war. It is only a matter of time. Let's just hope that this is not the LAST war.

Confused about Gold? Up, down, retracement, 5,000 or even 10,000 an ounce as some are prognosticating? I sure as hell am. You know why? You are on one side or the other. The typical exchange goes something like this. GG posts Mr. Denninger and Gold or Why the Dollar-Deflationists Are Wrong on ZH and the Denninger responds with Listen To The Hucksters, Lose Your Ass. Two pretty good arguments that deserve your attention. My thoughts are that we have a massive deflationary period and then go gangbusters int hyperinflation. I think you need to own a chunk of physical. I also like silver. Jesse's Cafe has this nice post on the cup and handle he's seeing in the shiny metal - Gold Daily Chart: The Handle Forms, a Reader's Questions, and Felix Zulauf on Gold. My favorite line, "The greatest negative is the possibility of a market meltdown in which everything is sold, at least temporarily." which has been my call all along. My word of caution, try selling it to someone at the top near Rosie's 10k guess. Good Luck. At that point it will be nothing more than an expensive rock and my seeds and ammo will trump your gold.

Things all around are tensing up more and more every day. That third of a third all the EWTers are looking for may be just around the corner. It sure got impulsive going into the close today. One thing is for sure is that the market is now beginning to react to the bad news and not shrugging it off anymore. With all the troubles, I'm not sure how upside potential is possible at this point, yet the V shaped recovery morons are still spewing their venom. I don't care what the BLS juiced up manufacturing report says or how good the census induced jobs numbers say later this week, we're screwed. It may not be this week or next, hell, given the Fed's proven potential it may not be till next year, but I promise this puppy will one day make the flash crash look like child's play.