Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Morning Post

The minis are entering their first round of resistance points in this area. The next block is around 1113. Minis also at the top of the corrective channel. 30 and 60m getting toppy but the dailys have plenty of room to run.

Earnings Calendar -  Cause you may want to see it.

Economic Calendar - Tomorrow is a busy day with employment and the EIA reports on Natgas and Petrol.

SPX daily - Pretty much just like the minis. 30 and 60m overbought. I'm viewing this move as more of the continuation of the breakout of the red dashed falling wedge. The BB 20ma is toast and the next stop will be the 50ma at 1108 which sits in the retracement zone (box) between 1097 and 1110. The upper BB is back on the chart finally and sits at 1136. The only caution point I see on this chart for the bulls is the RSI sitting at the 50 line. MACD hist has gone positive which means the market can now put in a top. I'll be watching the RSI 5 for preliminary topping signals.Friday I called for 1103 max upside. Let's see if that can hold.

I suggest you keep an eye on this as it falls for a possible reversal signal when it meets price. I was correct in last Fridays buy call and I'm still calling for some more upside. I will caution the longs to keep those stops in place and lift them with the market. This sucker can and will turn on a dime and when it does it can be severe.

More upside than most may be expected if the dollar has completed the ABC I have been calling and it is not in a 5 wave move up.

Gold - is on a tear (up 8.5% in the last week) and possibly has a valid breakout happening cutting thru the upper resistance line with authority. Will it backtest? 30 and 60m indicators have some strong divergences, but the dailys are just getting warmed up. Gold all depends on the dollar. 1135 to 1157 is the retracement zone for this correction (if it is one).
Dollar -The dollar is a tough call. Is it completing the ABC corrective leading to much further weakness now or does it have more steam left in the engine? I like the ABC as being completed, but I think it is going to double ZZ to the 89 area before the plummet. Either way it eventually gets crushed.
Oil - At near term resistance, but in the channel with room to climb.
Natgas - Channeling down and indicators look like more weakness is to be expected.
EUR/USD - Looks like a possible E throwunder near a 62% retracement. That would be a classic corrective completed and some strength should be expected.

GL out there. Nice to be back. I'm gonna be updating charts and posting the beat of what I find.