IMVHO the bulls are losing the top of the first hill of the mountain. The insurgent bear force has been fighting back and as the volume and candles indicate the bulls are weakening. While slowly taking the foot hill one step at a time, they have taken the top.
In my opinion the manipulators are going to allow the bears to push back in order to promote the classic bait and switch move on the unsuspecting bears. Draw 'em in and slaughter them is the tactic I think we're gonna see. Set up the short squeeze for the easy money cover is the best and possibly only method "they" have do drive the market higher. This will be a calculated move.
The daily, weekly and even specific monthly indicators are showing the turn. No one denies the market is overbought. A proper pullback has not occurred. OpEx is behind us. The P/E is not sustainable. GOOG and AAPL and the whole COMP appear to be ready. The financials are struggling with a top. Any further rise in the 10yr treasury may just spook the market.
As previously stated, there are a lack of proper divergences on the weekly indicators for a sustained turn and this fall will provide the depth for these divergences to be set up (The final push up the mountain). This fall may be swift as most have been on this run up. Now I'm possibly seeing a completed 1 wave down and in the process of completing a 2 corrective which could run a little higher than drawn. Three happens this week (and possibly 4 and 5 waves as well).
I'm of the opinion that this will have to look like a real move south and it could be significant for them to suck in enough shorts for the desired effect. At this time I'm looking at the 38% retracement of the whole move up which gets us to the 845 level and the 100ma as a stopping point. A nice 5 wave move measures out nicely to this area.
Click here to view the DAILY and WEEKLY indicator charts.
I am more than likely dead nuts wrong on this theory, but I like it. I believe the indicators and sentiment are there for a pullback. Insiders are selling. The candles are screaming weakness. Only time will tell. The Market has been trying to roll over for some time now and maybe this is the week. If not, it is coming soon.
Thanks for your views and comments. GL trading this week.