MACD bear cross and the divergences from the '00 top to the last top in '07 are just insane. It will take a while (a looong while) to correct this.
Note -
the MA5 is at 1196
the MA20 is at 939
the MA50 is at 454
the lower BB is at 201
Friday, June 5, 2009
The Ugliest Chart Makes An Uglier Picture
And you thought the monthly indicators looked bad? Check out the yearly. Yes, they matter in case you were asking. They add proof to the P3 and much further weakness scenario. No comments on the chart's beauty. It is just here for the indicators. I was not about to trash all my ST and LT stuff on the chart just to make it look pretty.
MACD bear cross and the divergences from the '00 top to the last top in '07 are just insane. It will take a while (a looong while) to correct this.
Note -
the MA5 is at 1196
the MA20 is at 939
the MA50 is at 454
the lower BB is at 201
MACD bear cross and the divergences from the '00 top to the last top in '07 are just insane. It will take a while (a looong while) to correct this.
Note -
the MA5 is at 1196
the MA20 is at 939
the MA50 is at 454
the lower BB is at 201
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Shanky, After reading the actual job report vs the BS CNBC & CNN spewed today the second paragraph of the summary states "Unemployment (Household Survey Data) located here: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
ReplyDelete"The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percent-age points. (See table A-1.)"
So guess what CNBC latched on....the 345,000 which is understandable as that is customarily reported but I couldn't quite compute how did the estimated numbers drop so much yet UE exceeded estimated percent and hit my personal call nearly dead on. No one at CNBC I recall happened to mention theis significant divergence. However, I suspect other folks also were confused and went to read the actual report and went OH SH*T and realized that the 10.3% number will probably be here by AUG or SEP and 11% by DEC and banks weren't "stress tested" that high. Moreover with GM and Chrysler jobs lost....may go higher. Couple that with a huge loss in consumer credit with accompanying retail sails going deep south...and the green shoots look kinda wilted in the harsh sunlight of economic reality. Wasn't as red as I expected today but JPM as usual kindly tried to move in and do the mysterious hand treatment and got SMACKED down hard by the bears. Was quite amusing to watch! Cant wait for your post tonight....
-Michael
Michael - Mish has the best unemployment truth on the web. See this
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/initial-unemployment-claims-dip.html
Don't forget how many fall off the "official" roles and those that are not included due to part time work etc. It is a bunch of shit. One more thing - on my site it is CNBS. We do not recognize the other letters.
Oh, thanks for the reply Michael.
ReplyDeleteRGR CNBS!
ReplyDelete-Michael
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWu-efNN8PM&feature=player_embedded
ReplyDeleteHi Shanky,
ReplyDeleteWill you consider to add the Chaikin oscillator to your charts for better divergence watch?
Or say why not :)
Your charts at SC are pretty good.
Roxy
My groups opinion is that if the dollar strengthens and breaks 1.30 against the euro then we may start to see the deflation to start kicking in hard. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the DOW fall 2k in one day and that the resets on mortgages and the housing issue will be even worse than before . Moreover, if the money velocity falls below 40, again deflation (vs the BS inflationary stories we see…) will start to hit and we are already seeing signs of this because of the consumer credit falling hard as we saw on Friday. My DEF: The velocity of money is the average frequency with which a unit of money is spent in a specific period of time. Velocity associates the amount of economic activity associated with a given money supply. When the period is understood, the velocity may be present as a pure number; otherwise it should be given as a pure number over time. In the equation of exchange, velocity of money is one of the key variables determining inflation. A rise in the velocity of money usually follows a fall in the interest rate. However, since interest rates are rising though so the inverse is true. Thus my argument is that if the dollar breaks 1.30 AND the velocity breaks below 40, then one can expect a massive selloff of the markets and a probable movement to hoard cash. I am expecting that what we have experienced in the past 3-4 months with this bear rally is about to come to a dramatic close.
ReplyDeleteRoxy - Will add it to the SPX charts when I get a chance.
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Shanky
Michael. The velocity of the dollar as well as trying to quantify any movements at this time (even using TA) is basically useless. While I agree with your points above, I'm copping out on agreeing based on manipulation of everything and the lack of transparency. It is all gonna come crumbling down. Insiders are selling and the sheeple are buying. It is only a matter of time.
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Shanky
I agree TA is useless with the velocity. Just a speed gauge and just like in an airplane that goes to slow....it will stall. When it does...that's when flying objects nose dive and crash. Futures are way down this morning. Lets see if O'binhood and his cheerleaders can fight the new momentum....
ReplyDelete-Michael