Wednesday, June 24, 2009
The Case For Up Or Down
OK, notes are on the chart, but I’ll try to get all the facts in.
UP Case – Bounced off lower BB, got golden cross, daily RSI takes out trendline and headed up (must get thru 50), S TO at bottom (can embed), MACD Hist turning up, possibly just completed and ABC corrective, possibly just had an A-E falling wedge throwunder. P2 is not over and there is more upside.
Down Case – Economy sucks and we got a bunch of crooks running the show (the crooks part can work for both up and down scenarios), we are in wave 22.214.171.124 of P3 headed to hell in a hand basket courtesy of your government’s lack of oversight and gratuitous credit allotment, the weekly indicators are topping and giving signals across the board we’re going south, PE ratios in the stratosphere, 30% + move without significant correction, the monthly indicators are starting to show signs of topping…… and have you seen the yearly indicators?
In my blog I am on record for thinking there is more upside before the crash in Q4 or Q1, but I am also holding that it is just fine if we crash here. Here is my post from last week on my thoughts on overall direction and possibilities.
Summary – not sure how it is gonna work, but I’m looking for more upside before a fall to 847ish. I do not think the 956 top is in jeopardy at all. I have to go with the daily indicators bottoming out and the ABC or A-E wedge completing. At this time the weeklys are topping. I think the dailys make one more push up and then we fall more significantly. It can go either way from here though (thus I am long and short 10% looking to add when direction is made clear). With Ben speaking later today he’ll move the market one way or the other. He’s focused on the bond market right now. He can’t let the yield curve get away from him, so he’ll say whatever is necessary to move it in his favor. If you actually think someone on the hill is gonna tell the truth you are on drugs and need serious help. GS, MS and JPM will come in to manipulate the markets as necessary. Here is a good post I found the other day on the PPT. Good read and check out the source of the article. Scroll about halfway down till you see Moral Hazard and More on manipulation and a shadowy group called the CRMPG. http://www.nowandfutures.com/false_data.html