Wednesday, June 24, 2009

The Case For Up Or Down

OK, notes are on the chart, but I’ll try to get all the facts in.

UP Case – Bounced off lower BB, got golden cross, daily RSI takes out trendline and headed up (must get thru 50), S TO at bottom (can embed), MACD Hist turning up, possibly just completed and ABC corrective, possibly just had an A-E falling wedge throwunder. P2 is not over and there is more upside.

Down Case – Economy sucks and we got a bunch of crooks running the show (the crooks part can work for both up and down scenarios), we are in wave of P3 headed to hell in a hand basket courtesy of your government’s lack of oversight and gratuitous credit allotment, the weekly indicators are topping and giving signals across the board we’re going south, PE ratios in the stratosphere, 30% + move without significant correction, the monthly indicators are starting to show signs of topping…… and have you seen the yearly indicators?

In my blog I am on record for thinking there is more upside before the crash in Q4 or Q1, but I am also holding that it is just fine if we crash here. Here is my post from last week on my thoughts on overall direction and possibilities.

Summary – not sure how it is gonna work, but I’m looking for more upside before a fall to 847ish. I do not think the 956 top is in jeopardy at all. I have to go with the daily indicators bottoming out and the ABC or A-E wedge completing. At this time the weeklys are topping. I think the dailys make one more push up and then we fall more significantly. It can go either way from here though (thus I am long and short 10% looking to add when direction is made clear). With Ben speaking later today he’ll move the market one way or the other. He’s focused on the bond market right now. He can’t let the yield curve get away from him, so he’ll say whatever is necessary to move it in his favor. If you actually think someone on the hill is gonna tell the truth you are on drugs and need serious help. GS, MS and JPM will come in to manipulate the markets as necessary. Here is a good post I found the other day on the PPT. Good read and check out the source of the article. Scroll about halfway down till you see Moral Hazard and More on manipulation and a shadowy group called the CRMPG.

GL Trading.


  1. Just wanted to say I appreciate your work and I never miss a post.


  2. Thanks (If I am not being patronized). I appreciate your work too - now get a blog. Free and easy. You post enough on ST and around. Your work is good. Should be viewed by more people.

  3. shank, hope you don't mind taking one more question on ung but it looks like it is resting exactly on your lower trendline. Your thoughts on a bounce from here? inventory numbers tomorrow.

  4. Shanky, another interesting day. Appears someone (JPM?) wanted the S&P to close above the 200, and 50 MA. Looks to me like the closed right on 200MA and under 50 and 10 MA. Which was a trick as the 50 and 200 are damn near on top of each other. Since the MA for Mass Layoff events is about to move above its 6 month MA....I suspect this next initial claims tomorrow may be higher still. That and a possible worse GDP ought to make for a bloody day indeed. Looking forward to testing that 875 area tomorrow. Good luck trading...


  5. @ anon- see ung chart in chartbook

    @ Michael - I was very disapointed in the feds speach and the markets reaction. It appears we are in wave 3 which should be impulsing down. I'm still looking at it from both sides and willing to go long. Look at Dan's post for exactly where I am. Futures are not saying much now.


Keep it civil and respectful to others.