OK, I'll try to leave the obvious manipulation out of this and try pure TA, but we all know that the market will go where they want it to. Sorry to all the P2 is over people, I just don't see it yet. I know I am going out on a serious limb here, but this is what I see and I think I'll make a good case for more upside here. You all know me as a straight shooter, so I'm firing both barrels. If I am wrong, so be it, we all know no one is prefect.
I believe the VIX is irrelevant, but I will include it here anyway. VIX set a new low today and appears to be stuck in a channel headed south with the rest of the world. Daily VIX looks like it has a little more room to fall. There was an obvious failed (shutdown) breakout of the VIX last week. I'm really not sure what is going on here, but the lack of fear in the market is astounding to me. The upper black trendline needs to be broken before you can get excited about any sustained move south in the markets. Until this line is broken, fuhgeddabout any serious moves south. The weekly indicators are embedding low.
Channel to gap fill, 100ma resistance and top of 60m BB. Sure looks like a top here. They cant push it any higher?
Well, lets look at a little larger 60m chart.
Looks like a clear breakdown of the blue trendline. Uh oh, looks like a clear breakout of a descending trendline. Nope, you can't move it up and out. Leave it there for now. Ever heard of a back test? I'm not thinking about that here but not leaving it out of the equation. Indicators on this chart still have some room to run and there is no rule I know of (especially in this market) against getting and remaining overbought. Completed a 50% retrace off of 826 low and bounced nicely at 888 support.
Ah, to me the dailys rule the roost. The 60m can bounce around, but this puppy drives the boat IMO. Just look at the big indicator chart linked below. Not to mention the 50 and 200ma support and the lower BB sitting just below. Like a freaking trampoline man. Boingggg.
No fear in an obviously controlled market with the dailys bottoming and turning up, there is only one place for it to go from here. Is this a big bear flag? I just can't buy that. Now, if I am wrong here's why - the weeklys are going to trump the dailys and the 60m rollover and force the dailys back down, and the world is crashing down around me and I somehow missed it. I think momo is still on the side of the manipulators (duh). Of course after todays actions given the hand that was dealt the market, besides getting bombed or some other horrible event I'm not sure Superman could push this market down.
Now remember, I am not a counter and do not pretend to be one. I use them in my calculations. At this time I mostly disagree with the bearish counts. I am sticking to my call of 847, but after this pop up when the weeklys get the proper divergences set. A slight manipulated short squeeze here moves us higher. I have not set a target, but believe that 956 is safe as the higher high. The bigger short squeeze happens later after the fall to 847. It may not mean anything, but the monthly EMA10 that the market likes to obey was kissed today from underneath. This kiss sent the market south at the last bottom in '03 for the dead cat bounce. If this holds, I wrote all this for naught.
For a more detailed daily chart click here.
For a more detailed weekly chart click here.
UPDATE: For the perma shorts - This from Prag Cap - DAMON VICKERS: TIME TO GET AGGRESSIVELY SHORT
"I believe that if life gives you lemons, you should make lemonade... And try to find somebody whose life has given them vodka, and have a party."
GL trading. Comments welcome. I'm sure I'll get a few.