Thursday, June 25, 2009

The Case For More Upside Here

OK, I'll try to leave the obvious manipulation out of this and try pure TA, but we all know that the market will go where they want it to. Sorry to all the P2 is over people, I just don't see it yet. I know I am going out on a serious limb here, but this is what I see and I think I'll make a good case for more upside here. You all know me as a straight shooter, so I'm firing both barrels. If I am wrong, so be it, we all know no one is prefect.


I believe the VIX is irrelevant, but I will include it here anyway. VIX set a new low today and appears to be stuck in a channel headed south with the rest of the world. Daily VIX looks like it has a little more room to fall. There was an obvious failed (shutdown) breakout of the VIX last week. I'm really not sure what is going on here, but the lack of fear in the market is astounding to me. The upper black trendline needs to be broken before you can get excited about any sustained move south in the markets. Until this line is broken, fuhgeddabout any serious moves south. The weekly indicators are embedding low.

60m chart

Channel to gap fill, 100ma resistance and top of 60m BB. Sure looks like a top here. They cant push it any higher?

Well, lets look at a little larger 60m chart.

Looks like a clear breakdown of the blue trendline. Uh oh, looks like a clear breakout of a descending trendline. Nope, you can't move it up and out. Leave it there for now. Ever heard of a back test? I'm not thinking about that here but not leaving it out of the equation. Indicators on this chart still have some room to run and there is no rule I know of (especially in this market) against getting and remaining overbought. Completed a 50% retrace off of 826 low and bounced nicely at 888 support.

Daily chart

Ah, to me the dailys rule the roost. The 60m can bounce around, but this puppy drives the boat IMO. Just look at the big indicator chart linked below. Not to mention the 50 and 200ma support and the lower BB sitting just below. Like a freaking trampoline man. Boingggg.

No fear in an obviously controlled market with the dailys bottoming and turning up, there is only one place for it to go from here. Is this a big bear flag? I just can't buy that. Now, if I am wrong here's why - the weeklys are going to trump the dailys and the 60m rollover and force the dailys back down, and the world is crashing down around me and I somehow missed it. I think momo is still on the side of the manipulators (duh). Of course after todays actions given the hand that was dealt the market, besides getting bombed or some other horrible event I'm not sure Superman could push this market down.

Now remember, I am not a counter and do not pretend to be one. I use them in my calculations. At this time I mostly disagree with the bearish counts. I am sticking to my call of 847, but after this pop up when the weeklys get the proper divergences set. A slight manipulated short squeeze here moves us higher. I have not set a target, but believe that 956 is safe as the higher high. The bigger short squeeze happens later after the fall to 847. It may not mean anything, but the monthly EMA10 that the market likes to obey was kissed today from underneath. This kiss sent the market south at the last bottom in '03 for the dead cat bounce. If this holds, I wrote all this for naught.

For a more detailed daily chart click here.

For a more detailed weekly chart click here.

UPDATE: For the perma shorts - This from Prag Cap - DAMON VICKERS: TIME TO GET AGGRESSIVELY SHORT

"I believe that if life gives you lemons, you should make lemonade... And try to find somebody whose life has given them vodka, and have a party."
Ron White

GL trading. Comments welcome. I'm sure I'll get a few.


  1. S135 schooled me the other day about charting long term trendlines with a log grid => Das is verbotten. And he's right. I updated my charts per his suggestion and the results are not insignificant. I recommend you update yours as well.

  2. Shank, I think you will like this

    Add this to your collection.

    Fed Reserve out of control:

  3. Shanky, Today surprised me BUT after doing further research...I look at this as window dressing and the craziness associated with the reset of the Russells. With the low volume it wasn't to hard for this pop to happen. I expect to see a pop tomorrow up to the 928 area to form a lower right shoulder but not break a major trendline then dive. I will be poised to buy a lot of shorts at that trendline when I see the bounce start to happen. Folks may be manipulating the market on low volume but once real volume moves into the should be a lot harder for them to do so. I disagree a bit with you as S&P going up to 950 area would violate a major trendline...and I don't think there is enough moxy left for the bulls to pull it off. Tomorrow will be a fun one regardless. Does anyone else besides me see Monday as a very red day as all of this window dressing and russell resetting will be done?


  4. Michael - EOM window dressing going into light vol holiday week. I do not expect a super move north but 936 would not surprise me. It is a little confusing right now, but I'm placing my chips on up, then down. The whole beef of my argument is aimed at the EWTers that think we'll be impulsing down and are all on the down side right now. Maybe I do not need to get so excited in my delivery and calm down somewhat.

  5. Hi Shanky, I just read the SEC requested a copy of the new movie about short selling: Stock Shock. Finally doing something!!


Keep it civil and respectful to others.