Sunday, June 28, 2009

A Few Bearish Observations And Some Other Things

From Calc Risk - BIS: Toxic Assets Still a Threat. This report may move the markets south Monday AM (before the PPT wakes up at least).

From The Market Ticker - SEVERELY Bearish Treasury Development Another report that may effect the market this AM. "There was no reason cited for the withdrawal but one can surmise that the issue is that they're stuffed to the gills with Treasuries and are finding it difficult or impossible to earn their spread, think there is a material safety risk in their participation (e.g. getting stuck long with a deteriorating position), or both."

From Seeking Alpha - Absurd Inverse and Leveraged ETF Product Whining David Fry says, "I’m a fan of these products and glad they’re available. They, like any other security or product, need to be used properly." What? Did I get that right, a positive statement on the ETF's we all love to use?

From Rick Bookstabber (via the Big Picture) - The 7 Habits of Highly Suspicious Hedge Funds Is a great read onone of the many ways you are getting screwed.

GL this week.


  1. Yes, the end is near, but well, someone has to provide charts to your readers to back it up, so here goes:

    The $XII {Institutional holdings Index) is at a critical point. It is signaling using a lot of solid TA clues that the washout phase is coming. Using the trendchannels and the A-B-C corrective pattern from the 2000 high, we've got a whopper coming. Notice how nicely the B wave retraced 61.8% of the A wave.

    The $XII is a higher quality index than the SPX because it represents stocks that most large institutions actually own. There are many stocks in the SP500 that institutions don't care to own for one reason or another.

    Here's the Bear Market Channel on the infamous SPX:

    The SPX channel is dropping 1.2 points per calendar day (9.5 pts/week, 36 per month, 438/year), so if it holds, which they usually do until the 5th wave is in, then the next 6 months to a year will be epic.

    Glenn Neely, famed Elliot Wave guru, has the SPX at new lows by year end, matching the charts above, while several other so-called gurus have the SPX going to 1000 first. History and TA suggests the channel will hold.

  2. Here's an attempt to make the above charts into links. Not sure this works with blogger, so this is a test:
    $XII Chart
    SPX Bear Channel

  3. Schweizer, I am tracking the same thing as well. Excellent chart. This week should show us sliding down that trend line or plummenting for the S&P.
    There is not enough money to manipulate us thru that channel....IMHO.


  4. Schweizer....that trend line held damn good today. Looked like someone ran into it 20+ times today and got slapped down everytime. Interesting is that everytime we hot 924 area....a buy button was pushed and we went back up to 926-927 area. Great day indeed...



Keep it civil and respectful to others.