We're toppy, but not quite there just yet. What I want to see are divergences in the weekly indicators. We're getting solid roll over in most on the weekly and the daily indicators have the necessary divergences in place. The daily RSI crossing the 20ma is one of my keys for the turn and it is sitting right there right now. If the Daily's pull down like expected then this could be it, but we'll have to see.
I'm not calling it for three reasons 1) EOM statement painting and 2) Fed meeting later this month 3) VIX appears to have one more short push south in it. I'm thinking it will possibly be a continued agonizing two to three weeks of sideways action.
All the ingredients appear to be in place for the fall. 30%+ rise off bottom, P/E overvalued, banks have completed pump 'n dump, dollar bottomed, 10yr treas moving up, Dan and K's counts appear to be there (or near), and on and on, but mainly the emotional aspect appears to be in place. We've been faked out many times on this move up, so I will cautiously approach this move. I really want to see the VIX daily RSI take out its trendline and the weekly SPX RSI fall below its trendline.
Daily Indicator Chart
Weekly Indicator Chart
GL trading.
don't know if a typo, but the rise off the bottom is 40%+, not 30%+
ReplyDeletekeep up the good work and thank you.
deadhead
Shank: test
ReplyDeleteShank: I enjoy examining your charts, and K and D's blogs. Do you see a Bear flag on the Comp? Could we be done going up? I must be seeing things.. Keep on trucking!
ReplyDeleteCaddy Man
Mike S
in Dallas
Anon 1 - I said 30% + but you are right.
ReplyDeleteAnon 2 - Yest it is me.
Caddy - I tend to focus on the SPX and briefly view the others as I update their charts. K had a nice point on the COMP. I do see a completed 5 wave move up, but no flags of any sort.
Thanks for the views and comments.