Carrying on with the larger view monthly chart theme here. Two things to notice in the chart. First notice the EMA 10 at 949 and its relation to price (SPX may turn here at 949). While the EMA 10 has been violated in the past it was very rare. Second notice the SMA 50/100 crosses just above the bottom in 2003 and the lows today.
For those of you that have been pointing to similarities between the last bottom or the bottom in '38, here is a bullish scenario. If price crosses the EMA 10 I would say by looking at past historical trends that the odds of this being a V shaped bottom are pretty good. Now don't go all wiggy on me and think I've turned into some sort of perma bull, I have not.
Price is currently being rejected by the EMA 10 and this may just prove to be the top of P2 or very near it as Dan and Kenny have begun mentioning in their posts. 954 resistance and the 200sma (at 1010) sit right above for more resistance (this may be the 200ma the market is looking for - not the daily 200ma). IMO this will make the push to 988 a little more difficult that Dan and K may be thinking, but we'll see. They are the pros and I, well I am only a pretender on their stage. Price has (rarely) violated the EMA 10 and returned to the trend while tails thru it occur often. This is something I will be looking at closely. Those manipulating bastards may just pull it off.
UPDATE: There is a cry baby out there that wants his props. He says he is not getting credit due for "his" findings, and I guess he is half right. Since I am (rarely) not one to steal without giving credit due, I will point out that the negative divergence needed idea on the MACD Hist was an idea I first saw on Stocktock and one of his posts. Guess I should have said in the post that the bull theory does not need the neg div and he bear theory will have one. On the 200ma idea, no soup for you. Sorry Schweitzer, you sissy. LOL of course.
So you're not going to give me credit for the reguired pos div on the monthly MACD and the fact that the 200ma monthly is the show stopper as I have posted on ST? I hate you like death.
ReplyDeleteNote: The Dow IS at the 200ma monthly and it is the driver, not the SPX, imo. Don't get too humg up only on the SPX like the EWTers have, mainly for their own convenience and little more.
SELL.
S135 - Ya happy now? LOL.
ReplyDeleteS135 - I'll update your credit on the actual chart as well in SC.
ReplyDeleteFine. I also contend that the low point in the MACD histogram signature indicates where we are, so Spring 2001 = spring 2009, but I'm not certain on this. My primary contention is we will end up with SPX<500 which is about the percent drop from spring 2001 to 2003 also.
ReplyDeleteCan you see any indicators that can agree or disagree with this idea? It is all about momentum so MACD is far more useful than RSI or STO which are oscillators.
You talk about the 50/100 cross...but the lines crossing that you are highlighting are actually the 20/100 cross! I'm confused?
ReplyDeleteToday was a turning point. Tomorrow and friday should be red and finally kill this Bear Market Rally. Notice at the close at around 0340pm the mysterious hand jumped in again to take back 80 points in 20 mins. Also notice that the Dow hit its 200MA 3 times and failed to breach it. S&P also failed to close above its fibonacci retracement to the high of 38.2%. I would argue tomorrow would officially start the retracement back down to the march lows but there has been so much manipulation by the government that who knows...excellent analysis Shanky...
ReplyDelete-Michael
Well Thursday was certainly not red and I was wrong Shanky! Retail sales down 4.6% and initial claims of only 621,000 (not bad I guess NOT!) were enough to get peoples 'hopes' up. GS I guess is long a few oil futures and needed to ensure they made bank hence their raise I suppose because it isn't based on demand from what I see. The high gas prices and high mortgages now will certainly improve US retail sales here on I guess. Tomorrow who knows...Job Report at 0830 will certainly determine tomorrows direction. Look forward to your analysis for Today
ReplyDelete-Michael