Thursday, April 23, 2009

Still in P1? and Not ready for a big fall just yet so says the weekly chart.

See the wave counts. Looks pretty clear cut to me. Not being a professional EWT counter (and not pretending to be one) I am not positive if there have been any violations of previous levels that would disqualify this being 4 of 1.

As for the fall. Looking at the indicators on this weekly chart SPX might have some time to go before we can get the top of 4 of P1 in (or to the top of P2). Now, I will clarify this is just a possibility and I am still in the P2 camp. Just posting it for you permabears.

The trendline on MACD is the key for me. It does not look like the first trendline will hold at all (although the dailys are turning which might cause a brief turn here). It may be headed for the second trendline above for the ultimate top of this wave. The Slow STO indicator line cross has been the most reliable trend change indicator on this chart. While it is entering the extreme zone I see no sign of a turn soon and it could embed (again the dailys are turning and might force a move that would cause a turn here but that is not expected). This will mark the next top (4.1 or 2). Either way at that top I'd be out of all longs and looking to short.

This is my third chart in my chartbook titled $$ 2 - SPX Weekly Indicator Chart

NOTE: The daily charts are ready for a good turn and have actually rolled over and given the signals for a near term fall. At this time I like the 810 level with targets as low at 768.

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