Tuesday, April 14, 2009

P2 Playout with numbers

The BB's on the weekly VIX are 21pts apart - pretty narrow and we're trading near the bottom. Might be more power in 2 that expected or are they narrowing for the 3.1.2 move? Time will tell. Going back a few weeks when I got ahead of myself trying to figure out where P2 could take us - a full retracement is not out of the question is it? 1.1.2 was massive. 3.1.2 will be lots of fun. 3.3.2 might be a moon shot. This has me wondering if we are still possibly in P1. Thanks.

I found a nice write up on the "Fake Recovery" that as you read thru it you can't help but read the waves as it plays out. It gives really good "scenarios" regarding recovery and why (P2), but also why it won't work in the end (P3). This is a scenario that takes us up in P2 thru the 2010 elections and crumbling down in P3 after them. This is a really well done post IMO from Naked Capitalism guest poster from the site Credit Writedowns.


Here is a hypo playout for 1.2

Start End Length Retracements
Wave 1 667 864 197
Wave 2 864 766 99 50% Retracement
Wave 3 766 1061 296 1.5 Wave 1
Wave 4 1061 913 148 50% Retracement
Wave 5 913 1110 197

Wave 1.2 total Length: 443
% Market Gain: 0.665
Wave 2.2 Total Length: 222
Wave 2.2 Target: 889 50% Retracement

See the % market gain - there is that 666 number again.


  1. great blog and great analysis... I'm being careful this time and waiting on confirmation before shorting this crazy bull run!!! have fun today and thanks for visiting my blog and putting me on your blog roll.... very nice!!!

  2. Interesting ...
    But I'd rather label your wave 1 of P2 as wave A of a zigzag correction

  3. Correct on the A call. My bad.


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