Thursday, April 2, 2009

It was the wedge back test after all


  1. i'm new to EWT. I understand regular TA. i'm frequent visitor to your blog, kenny's and daneric's.

    from ur latest chart, it seems S & P is headed to 875. is this fair assumption?

    or it's going south to 780 or below.

  2. I don't think it makes 875 personally. I prefer the 850 to 860 range. As for the fall, that is anyone's guess. I really like the gap fill around 770 and a backtest of the bear market trend line you see on some charts (I believe this is Dan's CE line). Possible that it makes it back to 750. The depth of the fall depends on earnings news IMO. The retracements have been moving up with the market and may not reflect the actual movement down (just the way they did not on the way up), but go with the retracements till proven otherwise.

    Thanks for the note and views.

  3. Thanks, Shanky for your insights. I closed all of my LONG positions by mid afternoon that i acquired S & P 680.

    I appreciate your response. I am hesitant to post on Kenny's/Daneric's blog as they seem to use too much "EWI Language" which i do not understand fully yet.

    I'm ready to jump on shorting some of major banks/brokers/reit stocks directly. I feel that GS has topped ~ 115 today and MS was -ve throughout the day despite monster rally.

    What's your thoughts on financial/reit sector on short term?

  4. Good job Shanky. I'm took in some shorts and will look to unload around 790 and then start addind some longs. Hopefully were in 2,2 now everybody is getting overly bullish cheer leaders out everywhere maybe we will hit your lower target but would not be surprised if the 2 is short and shallow.

  5. that's some strong work shanky, didn't even catch that backtest..but those are always some great reversal signals both ways, and the target to backtest the main is very logical and i believe likely.

  6. Hey Shank -

    The blue regression channel on your weekly needs to to be placed on your daily and one of your 7 dozen 60m charts - that's where it pushed over and closed under Thursday.

    I'm in the camp that we stay in this channel until the SPX trades below zero. Not a fan of this 900-1000 talk, but perhaps I need to dumb up a bit.

    All 8 of the indicator charts I posted on ST Social are looking even more convincing today and they suggest more than a schoolgirl pull back, but I don't know shit so ignore me.

  7. BTW, this guy has it right:

    None of that EWT garbage which will mess you up! I've read arguements for P1 -1,2,3,4,5 and P2-1. Bite me.

    Crash and burn baby. SPX 1Q estimated GAAP PE is now 97. 2Q is 196 and 3Q is 253. Yeah - let's rally on the P2 train. Maybe next year. I said maybe.

  8. Hi Shanky,

    Last week you were doing the math on how high you thought Primary Wave 2 would go. I think Daneric &/or Kenny said it just couldn't go above the start of P1, i.e. 1459 or so.

    Did you ever finalize your calculation of P2's likely top?

  9. Wow, I go on vacation and get more responces than ever.

    SRS - K said it can fully retrace P! if it wants to. I we ended 1 of P2 around 830 or are still in it. then the whole 5 wave structure retraces all of P1 (if if holds to form and 3.1.2 or just 3.2 extend - just too hard to believe right now.)

    S135 - I trust you, your work and your gut, just don't trust the manipulated market we have to deal with. I worked out a conservative 1040 target for 1.P2, I think we get there and more after earning season is over. The earnings "trough" will either be this qtr or next IMO. That will give a huge boost deserved or not.

    Vina (I like Vino better - LOL) I'll be looking for a backtest of the P1 trendline for the bottom of c.2.1.2. Jusr like we are backtesting the wege now we'll more than likely backtest the channel and possibly crawl down it. I like the gap fill near 770 for the bottom to 750. As for the financails and retis I don't like 'em at all I prefer energy and some tech. I'll get more specific when the time geats near about what I like. Don't be afraid to ask K or DE questions, that's how you learn.


Keep it civil and respectful to others.