Thursday, April 2, 2009

The road block on /ES

OK look at the lower chart first. Daily chart, bigger picture and bigger channel. Simple to see that /ES is beating its head on the 50% channel line. Now look at that top 60m chart and keep the 50% line in mind. Some of you liked the idea that I had last week about a back test of the rising wedge we fell out of. Well now that there is a channel there. How about a back test of that? I know Daneric has made a similar (and better presented and more polished post on this), but I'm trying to hit a slightly different angle. The back test of the blue channel today would be near 850. The 50% line is near 834. 836ish is a 61.8% retracement from the top at 944. The daily 100sma is at 829. Indicators on both 60m and daily are getting up there. I could draw a pretty good resistance line at 838. The retracement zone sits right on the 25% channel line below. To sum it up I'm seeing a buy the news, sell the rumor pop today. On the other hand an impulse 3.1 should have the power to blow thru all of this resistance. I'm going with the overbought indicators running into lots of resistance at interesting conjunction points and looking for the pullback to at or near the 25% channel line (if it can get thru the black line).
GL today.

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