Monday, December 17, 2012

Morning Charts 12/17/12 SPX /ES

Ok, it hit me this weekend, no not the Christmas spirit, STB still struggling to get all jolly, but the proper quote to put it in context and what we (those not quite there) must do -

"Where do you think you're going? Nobody's leaving. Nobody's walking out on this fun, old-fashioned family Christmas. No, no. We're all in this together. This is a full-blown, four-alarm holiday emergency here. We're gonna press on, and we're gonna have the hap, hap, happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap-danced with Danny fucking Kaye. And when Santa squeezes his fat white ass down that chimney tonight, he's gonna find the jolliest bunch of assholes this side of the nuthouse."

Clark Grizwold, Christmas Vacation

Got it?  Press on we shall, not only for the holiday season, but we'll need to take this attitude to the markets and right on thru the economic disaster we're living out. Economically speaking you have no other option really. Crawling in a cave and giving up your guns is not really an option now is it? So make a stand and do the best we can is exactly what we'll do.

I'll assume the Christmas week trading/vacation/low volume vacuum starts in earnest today. Very dangerous time of the bears as the bots take even more control of the board virtually dominating trade (even more than usual). On top of that you can add some sort of fictitious positive news flow on the fiscal cliff issue which may be lifting as well (if in spirit only).

Minis tell the story for the most part. On the daily chart below you can see the fall and rise we've been covering since September. Pretty basic tumble and retracement stuff with a battle occurring at the white support diagonal off the October '11 lows. Price is a bit now formless after the green wedge and yellow channel brakdown. This indicates indecisiveness which can be understood with the Fed promising to fuel the fires of hell even more (to the tune of $85b a month) and on the other hand we face the fiscal cliff and the "recovery" is not going as swimmingly as the tens of trillions spent should indicate.

Minis 30m - I'm tinkering with a new channel (blue) down and not sure if I can turn the busted green rising wedge in to a rising channel at this time or not. If that wedge did bust, the set up is for an even more dramatic move south here and now. If it turns into a channel, then price stagnates with slight upside potential. White support mentioned above is dominating price here.

Minis 5m - In a rather bearish development, the Boehner Cave Pop at the open last night was taken back rather quickly. Add this to the total lack of interest in the Fed's increasing QEterity promise, and I think Mr. Market is making a grave statement. Is hope finally fading? If so, it is a long overdue change IMHO.

SPX Daily - Sorry I keep bringing this chart out, but it really does a good job right now. SPXA50 almost made the 400 reversal point I was looking for last Wednesday. The MACDaddy histogram lowering into rising price was another thing I was looking closely at. Those two things combined with the blue wedge backtest, the upper BB, the 50 dma, the NYMO and the 1422 level all generated enough pressure to turn price late last week. Now again, if price moves as it should (thinking in "normal" market conditions) a massive move south should be in order here.

Does anyone else get the feeling they are trying to combat that massive move south here? And that their efforts are failing when the trickery they are using is beginning to lose its effects? They are doing all they can to support price here and all they can do is maintain. I suspect they do maintain till the fat guy comes down the chimney and then there is a good chance we may see some panic selling into year end.

I am actually a bit jollier than I let on above. I had to go all theatrical on you to set the mood for what I was trying to get across. Kinda like that grumpy Santa in Rudolph, he came around and so did I. Ho Ho Ho.

I plan on being here all week. I may be in and out, but here for the most part.

GL and GB!

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