Monday, August 17, 2009

So Is This How It Ends? (Part One)

No charts necessary. You all have seen the rising wedges all over the place. You all are familiar with the fact that SPX has had a 38% retracement. You all know the VIX broke the falling wedge this morning. You all know about the super high PE ratio of the market. You all know about the ridiculous commodity rally. You all know about the extreme economic conditions. The question is have the indices topped and is this fall finally here? It is hard to believe that it is not.

Folks, I believe the Fed and Treasury are out of money. We know the treasury has hit its ceiling and will most likely be requesting an increased credit line soon. It will have to because the FDIC is bankrupt. In As of Friday August 14, 2009, FDIC is Bankrupt Mish covers last Friday's bank failures and determines, "If indeed $641 million was all that remained of the DIF, the FDIC is now bankrupt. Of the $641 million left, Community bank used up 781.5 million and Colonial Bank $2.8 billion". This is really not good given the CIT problem, this report from Calc Risk Report: Guaranty Bid Deadline Tomorrow, Corus Sept 3rd and the numerous bankruptcies to come.

ZeroHedge offers up July Capital One Charge-Offs And Delinquencies Worse Across The Board and "Fed July Loan Officer Survey - Crunch Continues" where you get a real dose of the troubles the consumer and small businesses are facing on a daily basis.

Back to Mish (who is on a roll) with Brace for a Wave of Foreclosures, the Dam is About to Break. "More than 15.2 million U.S. mortgages, or 32.2 percent of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity position as of June 30, 2009 according to newly released data from First American CoreLogic. As of June 2009, there were an additional 2.5 million mortgaged properties that were approaching negative equity. Negative equity and near negative equity mortgages combined account for nearly 38 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide." We all have read the DB forecast that expect these totals to be near 48% in a year.

As proof the consumer is tapped out Mish and Prag cap both have posts on the horrendous back to school sales numbers. If these are bad then Christmas won't be good either IMO. From Prag Cap you get BACK-TO-SCHOOL SEASON A DUD. "Now we are seeing horror stories when it comes to the back-to-school season — have a look at Retailers See Slowing Sales in Key Season on the front page of the Saturday NYT. As it turns out, Citigroup analysts are forecasting the softest back-to-school sales performance this year — a decline, the first time since their poll began in 1995. They see August-September coming in at down 3.0-4.0% compared with +1.0% in 2008 when everyone seemed to believe the world was coming to an end."

That is enough for this post. Things are really dreadful, but CNBS would never let you know this. With a slew of more bank failures to come, pension plan failures, foreclosures, lack of credit, a dead consumer that provides 70% of GDP and a HC plan we can not afford there really is no hope. It is a matter of time, and I think the clock is reading 00:00. I will add to this post in new and separate ones all this week.

1 comment:

  1. Yes. Sad for the country. I don't see Con-gress approving any new bailout or stimulus debt, and the FED money never really went anywhere other than to the banksters who used it to gamble in the market - so that was ineefective and doubtful Ben will try that again. I am suprised we have not heard of additional secondaries in the last month though, which is weird. You'd think the reits and banks would all be grabbing capital "up here."

    K-wave winter for sure.


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