Back to my roots! Let's bang on some nitty gritty tonight as the stakes are getting higher and the disinfo is getting worse. Seeing thru the numbers and bullshit is what we are looking to do. Uncover the truth. Get the word out to the masses that things are not at all right and getting worse at a pace faster than things are "getting better".
I am so tired of all the crap I hear regarding green shoots and mustard seeds or that long dead "krocus" call that bimbohead made that was as short lived as her career should be. The glossing over of bad data or the outright misrepresentation of the facts should be enough to make you want to explode. Hell, even Hufpost is getting into the act on truth reporting. When you hit that stage you know that dire straights are ahead.
IMO the public is finally catching on. I'm guessing that when 38% of the homes in the country are underwater and their portfolios are worth half what they once were even the sheeple are beginning to stir. The Daily Presidential Tracking Poll has our president at all time low ratings. "Today’s Approval Index rating reflects a slight improvement from yesterday’s record low of -14. The number who Strongly Approve ticked up a point while the number who Strongly Disapprove has moved down a point. Today is the President’s third straight day with an Approval Index rating in negative double digits." Just so you know I am not "picking" on the president, I'll add the sentiment of how the the people of the great state of Michigan feel about the economy, "In Michigan just 2% rate the economy as good or excellent while 79% say poor." Uh, that's TWO precent.
Let's move on to some market manipulation. I'll give ZH and TD a break on HFT and let Denninger take it this week. In The Lie Of "High Frequency Trading" Liquidity Karl does a great job of describing just how the illusion of liquidity is controlled and how you and I get screwed on most every trade. "So when you put in your "buy" order the HFT guys jump with glee, because they just screwed you - their pumped price gets "sold to you", but worse, the offer suddenly disappears, because there was in fact only 1,000 shares out there - all the other "offers" and "bids" were REFLECTIONS that the computer can cancel faster than you can hit them, and they DO! As the offer collapses the price skyrockets, and the rest of your order executes at a very nasty price indeed." So there you have it on plain english. Pumped price, false liquidity, and a screwed investor all in the name of profit and saving the market.
If you are looking for some cheery posts from Mish, fughedaboutit. Let's tag two! First Mish lays the wood to the falsified RE recovery in Hidden Backlog of Foreclosures. "RealtyTrac's Sharga says "We don't see much improvement until 2011." With that, mainsteam thought is staring to approach the 2012 possible bottom I suggested two years ago. At the time, no one thought home prices would fall for this long. Perhaps I will turn out to be an optimist."
UPDATE on the morgage issues: I have to throw in the ZH post Taylor, Bean, Whitaker Files For Bankruptcy, 12th Largest Mortgage Lender In H1. ""Beginning on or about August 5, 2009, Colonial froze all of TBW's accounts and refused to accept deposits, honor checks, receive wire transfers, or permit disbursements." One wonders how much the other 81 bank failures YTD have impacted existing bank-mortgage lender relationships. If one listens to the news, likely none at all... until it is of course impossible to hide these." This is just not good at all.
In Critically Under-Capitalized Banks Direct Result of "Wonderful Chain of Stupidity" Mish has a great read that is summed up here, "The WSJ article notes 'There are 1,400 banks that own mortgage-backed securities that aren't backed by government-related entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." What we don't know is how many of those banks are levered up enough in garbage mortgages to fail." Any questions about your banks that are so well capitalized or the really "solvent" FDIC that has to insure the accounts?
I called a near term top in XLF today (see post below) and mentioned I would be playing it as if it were the big drop just in case. Well leave it up to TD and Zerohedge to come up with this gem Financials Underperform As Flight To 30 Year "Quality" Becomes Sprint. "Notably, the index and single name put/call ratio has been ramping higher, indicating big players are starting to hedge aggressively against a material drop. However, this is certainly not the first time, and on most prior occassions this move ended up being a headfake. Then again, on prior occassions the market was never as massively overbought as it has become now." The headfake is what I am guarding against in my speculation one more pop is in order. They can't let the market fail PERIOD. When it goes, almost all wealth goes and anarchy in the streest will happen.
Folks, P3 is coming. It is getting closer day by day. The lies and manipulation can not continue indefinately. They will continue the pump and dump until the tournip has no more blood left. As noted here previously, the insider selling is at rediculous levels. Those in the know are hauling ass and you should be preparing to do the same - just not quite yet.
I'll have a Mortimer Duke, "SELL SELL" post in the am. The 60m SPX is ripe for a tumble and the daily looks to be wanting to turn (whipsaw intervention not guarnateed).