Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Morning Charts 02/05/13 SPX /ES

Back on the subject of hidden inflation - Please see Fraudulently Diluting High-Quality Food by ZH.

On the subject of 401k confiscation - They are discussing the option of them (the government) assisting you in managing your retirement account. I guess you don't have a 50% allocation to Treasuries.

On the subject of everything else. I don't know how to cover so much in so little space. The stories have really become redundant. How many Greek bailouts or Japanese QE's have there been? The story is the same every time, big problems always end with bigger bailouts. We're conditioned at this point and that's why the debt ceiling is a non issue. We all know what's going to happen. the GOP will cave and the entitlement crowd will get their way yet again. Cut spending? HA!

Ah, then there is Europe. I still await a catalyst to start the fall of all falls. The most corrupt of the corrupt financial systems, where monetary policy resembles a 6 year old playing monopoly, is beginning to strain again. Was Italy's recent CDS issue the first of many more to come? I think so. It is only a matter of time before the rehypothecated under non-collateralized system erupts. I believe the catalyst that leads to my "event" will be financially related (CDS) and will tip off in the EU in the not too distant future.

On to the markets -

Daily SPX - Can the bears follow thru on the reversal candle from yesterday? The charts are starting to weigh on price and even with record QE the Fed may struggle to continue the recent euphoric move in price. Remember we're staring down $85 billion a month now in QE that can be used in any form or fashion whenever or wherever they need it.

As mentioned in the Open Weekend Post, if I had a set Friday was the best spot yet spot to call a top technically. We'll just have to eye it from here. I have to wait I believe on something (a catalyst) to happen to force the market into a retreat. It is totally controlled and manipulated. You can not fight that. Something has to happen to turn their machines against them. I do believe that we are in a range where you could call a top and be relatively close in price and time. For well over a year now I've thought Q1 of 13 would be as far as they could carry the charade.

Minis 30m - OK, yesterday I looked for a fall to the 91 area and the pink diagonal and then a reversal to the 30m 200ma or possibly the 1502 area. Here we are. The bears need to hold up to 1506 while a(nother) possible RS develops here. Of course RS's are merely launching pads, so be warned. If the bears can hold serve I still like the 67 to 60 area for this retracement. If the pink diag goes the possibility of a fall as low as 1425 is in the cards and there is very little support and a whole lot of over bought conditions to work off.

A few weeks ago I Id'd a couple of STB points that were interesting. Right now either looks like it could get hit. The 1506 will get hit if they can maintain price and the 1460 (much better STB point) will get hit if the reversal occurs.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

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