Well, is the old STB goes on vaca and the market crashes theory in play again? I somehow doubt that as the liquidity train is still on the tracks, but those tracks are apparently running on a severe uphill slope and the curves at the top of the mountain are becoming increasingly difficult to manage.
The charts since the SPX 1292 double top back in January (the first instance out of 5 - if not more - times so far this market could/should have topped technically) have done nothing but increasingly worsen in terms of underylying strength. That is actually an understatement as the divergences in the indicators have worsened significantly since mid March creating a dreaded 'double divergence'.
All STB has done since the beginning of the year is preach patience, form and follow the Fed. We looked towards two FOMC meetings, the Greek bailout and then LTRO2 as key points that all failed to deliver any sort of turn. The key to each event really revolves around the continuing promise of liquidity, nothing else really.
That folks is what this crony capitalist rigged POS market is all about. As long as the banks can print money to keep funding the governments that owe the banks trillions then the system will work just fine. Sounds funny doesn't it? Well it is not all that funny to you and me. Sure the (dwindling) lucky few get the benefit of higher stock prices, woopie, that's great! Sadly the majority get the austerity and inflation that come with this elitist bullshit plan all the while the banks rape and pillage the serfs. This is really F'd up folks and why we're not int he streets trying to stop this thievery is beyond me.
So where is the fear? The VIX (busted all to hell like I told you years ago) says there is little. Why should there be any fear when they print, print, print and have total control of the markets? The VIX should be sub zero right now, or should it? If the markets are rising and there is little fear, then why the hell are insiders hauling ass and investors in general hauling ass?
Zero Hedge does a lovely job (a lot better than Pissonme at CNBS) at telling the truth about fund flows into domestic equity funds. Their analysis is always spot on (and amusing at the same time) - "Another week of artificial stock rampage courtesy of a transitory, one-time $2 trillion liquidity spike (that is now ending, if only temporarily), and another week of retail investors refusing to be suckered in (and joining corporate insiders who just sold a record amount of their own stock). In the week ended March 28, domestic equity mutual funds per ICI saw another $3.5 billion in equity redemptions: the biggest since the start of 2012, bring total 2012 YTD outflows to $19 billion, nearly 100% more than the outflow for the comparable period in 2011, which saw "only" $10 billion in outflows. Truly a good way to celebrate the highest artificial stock market high since December 2007." "Won't Be Fooled This Week Either": Retail Celebrates Highest Stock Prices Since 2007 With Biggest Redemptions Of 2012 | ZeroHedge
So, where do your investment/market beliefs lie right now? Some contend this market will never fall. Can you blame them? Some think we're going to hell on the express train. The vast majority have no flippin clue and just roll along not knowing jack shit about what their government is doing to destroy their future ignorantly in the dark standing on the belief that their government will never let anything bad happen. And thus the word "sheeple" came into being.
Patience, form and follow the Fed. Things have been worsening significantly over the past month economically. I think the big bitch slap is coming sooner than later, but then again a catalyst will be necessary. It appears that the world is waking up to the umpteenth iteration of euro zone funding fears (which in turn always seem to flip into exuberant joy of more easing to come). This week I have been discussing the possible M top and the 5th iteration (by my count) of a head and shoulders.
I'm still thinking 15 to 20% corrective before they pull the QE3 bazooka, but let's get thru 1341 on the ES first before we get too excited. See the possible HnS in the chart below and REMEMBER that right shoulders have been nothing but launching pads this year. Your key numbers are 1381, 76, 67, 55 and finally 41 the target.
SPX 60m - Can STB finally pull the trigger on some sort of top call? Hmmmmm..... been pondering that one. I am leaning heavily on the thought that this will be THE top and markets will not return to these levels for possibly decades. This chart is wickedly sick.
I'm enjoying the corexit soaked sands of the GOM the rest of the week and will be in and out.
Masters starts today! That's a big deal to STB.
GL and GB!