Thursday, April 12, 2012

Morning Market Summary and charts 04/12/12 - $SPX $ES $Gold $Silver $Oil $Dollar

Let's make this very simple this morning - Last week we were not going to QE and the markets started to fall. Six days in a row and 70 SPX points later I guess that was all they wanted to see. Now we suddenly have Dudley Joins Yellen In Leaving QE Door Wide Open | ZeroHedge. Maybe they knew the jobs number was going to miss and Dudley was trying to goose the futures? I would not put it past them. Initial Jobless Claims Soar Past Expectations, Hit 380K, Highest Since January | ZeroHedge.

Either way the full court QE press is back on. Strangely the markets are not reacting as they should. With Yellen talking about taking ZIRP to 2015 (wasn't it just last August they moved that timetable to 2014?) the truth is becoming more clear. Things suck. How bad do they suck (or should I say how bad has the Bernank's liquidity reflation trade failed)? I suggest you read Presenting Economic Reality | ZeroHedge

Earnings season suck and I hate it. GOOG after the close today and JPM in the morning. That may keep market activity down as we wait on the numbers.

JPM and WFC before the bell Friday
C Monday before the open
YHOO and IBM sometime, GS, JNJ KO before the open and INTC after the close Tuesday
HAL before and YUM after Wednesday
BAC before and MSFT after Thursday
MCD before Friday
AAPL sometime Tuesday the 24th in conjunction with the FOMC meeting.

As noted, my focus right now is on the week of the 24th with the FOMC meeting and the AAPL earnings announcement.

Minis 60m - White diag resistance off the 1419 top in play here as price is now being pinched between pink LT support, 1373 and that. If pink breaks then the move to my long desired 1341 should be in play. That completes the head of the even larger HnS I think the minis are forming. That is if the head is not complete and the RS is in formation now. The 1373 level would make for a nice symmetrical RS top.

Dollar - Green channel into blue resistance all the while in a larger yellow rising channel. Those diags are serious support. If they crack the Fed is putting on a major mojo move and the dollar will be doing much lower.

EUR/USD - Head and Shoulders targeting 126 LT green support diagonal? My target is still $118.

Oil - Trying to break out or is the blue resistance diag off the highs trying to supress prices here? A triple support confluence is right here with blue diag backtest, yellow channel support and 102 s/r line. The big question does oil want to break out or collapse to the lower blue support diag? Only the speculators know.

NATGAS - One Dollar! Obviously /NG is at a level it should not fall any more and if it does not much. Years ago STB had /NG going to $3,25 which people coud not believe. I also thres out a $2.25 target after that. This has surpassed my wildest dreams. I have told you that this is my favorite economic indicator. No /NG use = no economic activity.

Silver - LT pink diagonal resistance is the major hurdle. Green diag resistance off the highs is suppressing price now.

Gold - LT yellow and white channel support can be seen and the more recent ST green channel down pressing price into channel support. Yellow channel support proving to be rather stubborn. I can not out rule a small collapse in gold as I suspect when the markets let go every asset class sells off before the rush to gold happens. Right now it looks like 1478 would be a worst case scenario if some sort of event were to happen.

SPX 60m - With green targets that coincide with support and multiple fib confluence points.

As usual, you have to read the comments to get my updated targets and real time info.

GL and GB!

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