Monday, April 23, 2012

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 04/23/12 #SPX $ES

OK, this is not good (if you are a bulltard). Pink support off the November lows has been breached and so has the recent blue bull trap/ bear flag channel. This appears to be a real break and not just some tail they are gonna throw thru support. As always, I will caution against the backtest of both breaks.

The dollar is at critical support (off August '11 lows) and closing in on the apex of the most recent wedge/triangle.


Monthly long term

4hr close up - Reference the chart above and see the yellow channel's relationship to the green support off '02 lows and the more recent pink falling channel.

Gold -

Monthly - Note yellow channel and white channel support off the '08 lows.

4hr - interaction with support from the above chart.

Oil - Support off the October lows has been busted and $103 LT resistance  and upper blue diagonal have held for the most part. What does this mean with MENA in disarray in an election year? Who knows, but those pesky speculators need to be driven out of the market so prices can normalize. High prices have nothing to do with global tensions or peak oil or any normal supply demand market functions (at least that's what your government wants you to think).

So, what does this mean really? Seriously, what does a technical breakdown in the futures off a bear flag front of AAPL earnings and an FOMC meeting mean? What does the dollar, gold and EUR sitting above critical support with oil at critical resistance mean? We're sitting at a major turning point (or still building into one) is what it all looks like to me.

Folks, the markets all boil down to what the Fed wants them to do. Not till we get a serious enough catalyst that breaks the Fed's grip (or till the Fed allows it) will the markets make a serious turn for the worst. I have not gotten into the disturbances in the euro zone this morning or too deeply into the upcoming FOMC meeting. There may be no need to get into anything if history hold true and the markets remain afloat no matter what happens till Twist ends in June.

Patience, form and follow the Fed. Wait for the catalyst. Gangsta style hit and run scalps are still the trades to play while preparing for the bigger move south to come. I've been pointing to this week since before earnings season began. Tomorrow is a huge day with the AAPL earnings announcement. The EU did nothing over the weekend which disappointed. Then Wednesday the FOMC ends and at that time I believe some of the fog will be lifted from our investment horizon.

GL and GB!

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