Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

LOL, CNBS telling you to plant your own seeds to combat inflation. I know where you can get some (look down and to the right) if you need any. Darn MCC looks like shit this AM. Mandy looked awful yesterday. If I am discussing CNBS anchors then there must not be much for me to harp on this AM. HEY, did you read  10 Signs That Confidence In U.S. Treasuries Is Dying And That Financial Armageddon May Be Approaching ?

Economic Calendar -   Get the CPI report here from ZH. Pretty busy the rest of this week. Please ALWAYS check the calendar. 

POMO Schedule -  We got a new schedule Friday and the biggest surprise was there will be two POMOs on the 22nd totaling a possible $17 billion. Yet another POMO day today. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.

There was no POMO yesterday. There is POMO today. That may make a difference. Minis down a bit but off their lows.

We have seen wedges bust before in the past year that meant nothing. All the market did was reset the lower support diagonal and extend the run. POMO, fraud and manipulation have a funny way of masking greater issues of reality and placing fantasy front and center. Look at the runs off the Feb and Aug lows and compare or fractal them to this start. All I am saying is tread very lightly into any short scenario until it is confirmed.

SPX daily has some extended divergences that are similar to those that led to the April top. What is different this time? the Fed was PULLING liquidity then and is still pumping it in (at a higher rate) here. So there have been some reversals in indicators (that in any normal market would have marked a top in November after the QEII announcement blow off move) that indicate things may be different temporarily. The TRIX, BPNYA and the MACD turns up here are screaming extreme conditions (all driven by intervention). I like the NOYM turning and possibly holding the divergence line here.

SPX 15m - The best look at the busted wedge support (possible backtest?), the gaps and fibs.There is still a 5 up to come IMO after this corrective finishes. Looking at 1283 for the top right now.
Dollar, bonds and POMO are the market movers. Global turmoil is coming and we all know it, but will remain in our state of denial and ignore it till it smacks us in the face (and at that point it will be too late - it is actually to late already). Gold and  silver are falling still. As bond yields rise, I expect the rotation to continue (possibly the worst trade you can make right now unless you plan on selling (paper) high and buying it back lower). Oil is at 87.16 support and spiking under it here. Keep an eye on that. 

SPX set a lower high and low late yesterday. The RUT and COMPQ look the best at this point as far as trends go and appear to be leading. The DOW is screwing with everything having set a higher high yesterday (it was also the only one to set a lower low when SPX hit the 1173 bottom), it may be the fake out index.

Possibly a completed 5 down yesterday on the SPX. The 1240 area was recaptured. The counts all say more downside is to come here and possibly some sort of major top was possibly set. The screaming bond market, the actions of the dollar and the effects of POMO will be the markets rudder, not the indicators. Things are not good and the larger issues are finally moving to a position where they must be addressed and can be ignored no longer. At this time I'm considering consolidation in a range to down, but up should be out of play. Let's see what form delivers.

GL today and happy holidays.