Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Tax law resolution makes the markets happy, Assange arrest makes banks happy and the Europeans puss out on a bank run, that is a triplee doozie for stocks. Throw in a little magic POMO pixie dust and we may have another 25 point ramp today. Minis almost half way there already. Fear - what fear as /SI (silver) gets to $30.75 and /YG (gold) sits at 1432 (that was a joke). Like that little piggy that went we we we all the way home the markets are gleefully ramping and do not appear to want the party to stop.

From the 1040 low my call has been spot on. Ramp to the QEII announcement, euphoric pop, drop and now the ramp to the top is all that is left. After Xmas all bets are off. POMO to infinity is the play and the Fed has told all of us they will keep the markets afloat and use the markets to benefit all. You should not be doubting them at this time. I was originally thinking February for the top and still am, but may need to extend that to summer. Bottom line is we are in the last leg up. Big question is what will be the "external or exogenous event" I have called for for over a year now that will finally rip the markets from the Fed's control? Another question is does this move end at a measured 1283 or over 1300?

Economic Calendar -   Please ALWAYS check the calendar. 

POMO Schedule -  Light POMO day today, but have no fear cause there is still over $500B to go. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.

EUR/USD looks to be in a zig-zag corrective that may have a little bump down to go or it has completed the corrective and should be ready to move higher from here. Either way it is going up and so will the markets as the dollar falls on the other side. IMO the dollar after backtesting the busted channel looks set to continue it's slide. The only confusion now looks to be if the dollar might have one more pop up in it or not. Looks to me like the dollar is in or completing a th wave and still has a 5th to come. That fits well with where the markets need to go to finish this last run to the top.

SPX Daily - The divergence in RSI5 may be telling that things are due to slow down a bit. The MACD bull cross above zero tells us that an already overbought market is getting even more so. RSI14 and S Sto are entering areas where they can top, but still have room for much more upside. 
Daily index comparison chart - The 30m comparison chart is all bunched up indicating a turn of some sort after this pop. this chart however may need for the financials to catch up to the pack before any sort of major turn can happen. we're not over euphoric at this point.
USD and SPX comparison - Barring some sort of loss of inverse correlation it looks to me like the dollar's fall may have a chance of continuing. We all know the Fed would like this. Commodities seem to be getting toppy and that may damper the rate of climb, but climb they should if the dollar continues to weaken. The markest should continue to climb as well. After the first of the year the dollar/SPX may directly correlate as the Fed may lose control of the currency. When that happens it is game over.

Pop n Drop? Don't know. Odds are pretty good markets pop and then go flat the rest of the day, so if you don't trade in the first 30m you can just go home. Hey, that has been a trend recently on the big opens that are not deserved, have little merit and simply peter out. The daily SPX and daily RUT are on two different planets. My 30m comparison chart is all bunched up. Maybe we need to see if the financials can catch up on the daily comparison before we get the next sell off. Divergences are obvious, but we saw the 30m divergences get abused 8 consecutive times in September. That was a 3rd wave and this is a 5th, so things should not be that extreme. As for now the Xmas ramp is on like Donkey Kong. Not sure what news is out there that can slow the bulls momo at this time. All we can do is wait and look for signals. At this time I think this is 5 of 3 or possibly 1 of 5.

GL and have a good day.