Monday, November 22, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

To bail or not to bail? Well, does it really matter either way? Either we throw more fiat down the drain or not. At this point you must resolve and fully believe that either way it does not matter. Kicking the can in the game of extend and pretend is only game in town. We sadly do not make up the rules, we do not have any control and we can not opt out for any reason. We're basically fucked. The money masters are saving their asses while we take it up ours. I highly suggest that you enjoy this holiday season. I thought last year would be the last, but they have managed to fly the unicorn over fantasyland one more time. Something tells me the TSA checks at Fantasyland International Airport might be the last straw and will ground their flight this year.

Economic Calendar -  Nothing today. Tomorrow and Wednesday have some good action with GDP and jobs. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule -  The today and tomorrow are POMO days. (really we'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

It is a holiday week. I expect a bunch of nothing although Wednesday and Friday's shortened session are POMOless. Volume should be abysmal. Interest should be nil. While not everyone else celebrates Turkey Day, we do and that is all that matters. The shit is piling up deeper and deeper (if that was even possible). Even the SEC is now getting off their computers an taking on some sort of massive insider trading case. More than slaps on wrists will be given out this time as they are going after non-corporate entities. They actually prosecute the little people making it look like actual justice is being served. Remember it is all an illusion.

Not sure what to bring you chart wise this morning. The divergences on the 30m were pretty telling on Friday. the will be set with a lower open this morning. Indicators are trending down and in a no-mans-land gray area. I am thinking that a B wave corrective may have completed and C leg down of 4 is here. If not we churn and this is a 2 of 5 up. There is a massive difference in these two calls. one says straight down and one says consolidate then more strength. I never set a target below the 77.5 SPX low we met. Not saying it is not possible to go much lower (1130 max IMO with numerous possible stopping points before there).

The dollar SPX correlation is on the money still. So follow the dollar is still the trade. With the EUR about to get crushed (again) then dollar up market down would be the most obvious conclusion.
Near term the 30m SPX charts divergences tend to agree with the above dollar sentiment. I like the HnS scenario this chart offers, but a breakdown here will obviously nullify or at least change the neckline. The RS may be smaller and set already.

Let's see what develops out of the EU. News is not good. I still suspect that if they can hold out till after Xmas they will. No one wants to screw up this season (except a few Middle Eastern or Far East countries). Holiday week, so I do not expect much. I assume it would not be right to mention the Thanksgiving holiday without bringing up the always anticipated "Bank Holiday" as well. Just something to have in the backs of your mind.

Bottom line, quiet churn to down week with fading POMO and volume. Should be dull, so take some time off and enjoy the fall weather.