Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Election day! Get out and VOTE! All votes count. I'd prefer you vote for non incumbents, but you do what you feel is right. Just go vote.

What moved the markets this morning? Well, other than the near perfect ABC move off the top, RBA Rises Policy Rate By 0.25% Bps To 4.75%, With Consensus Calling For Unchanged, AUD Surges Across The Board, Futures Follow was the primary reason. The AUD/JPY chart from the April highs contours the SPX's movements almost perfectly. 

Economic Calendar - Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today or tomorrow! There are only 2 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

AUD/JPY daily - Resistance just above at 81.32 and then upper channel resistance near 82.60 should not be violated.

AUD/JPY 4hr - A closer look at the recent channel breakout and resistance point.

SPX Daily - BB width is 37 and falling. I see anything below 70 as predicting volatility. This is an extreme reading. Something is about to blow up big time. Wedge is busted. 1200 and April highs are not far away. The indicators are trying to whipsaw at this time.
30m Index Comparison - RUT went into freefall yesterday catching up with the lagging financials. COMPQ refusing to yield.

SPX, USB, VIX and TNX comparison chart - VIX diverging to SPX. TNX equilibrium to SPX price is about 810. USB is all blown up. the weekly 200ma for SPX is at 1193.
So there you have it. We're being dragged around by currency rates, POMO and QEII. Markets are precariously close to the April highs again. The weekly chart is starting to gt nasty. If the MACD histogram throws in a falling candle that may seal the deal. Tomorrow is D-day. Positioning for QEII is happening and the spikes on POMO and falls on non-POMO days tells the story. No POMO till Thursday. Insider selling and overly bullish sentiment are two keys as well. Mish covers them both nicely in Extreme Readings in Bullish Investor Sentiment as Insiders Bail at Highest Rate Ever Tracked.

As for today, who the hell knows? I'd expect a sideways quiet day, but you never know. Late day positioning will be key to see if there are any QEII leaks. Sell the news? I'd expect a good bit of that. Just have your powder dry for tomorrow.