Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

OK, now that we have shelved yet another EU disaster and put that behind us (for at least 4 to 6 months I'd say), who is next on the bailout/halt contagion docket? Does Italy finally step up to the plate? Will pesky Portugal or Greece or Spain or any one of a number of needy countries stand up to be recognized for the frauds their budgets are? How about any number of our states or municipalities (which are as large if not larger than some of these EU piglets) stepping up to the bankruptcy window? It is only a matter of time now as the ringmaster has thrown a chainsaw and a cat with a really short tail into the Fed's juggling act.

Economic Calendar -  Industrial Production at 9:15 and then Housing Market Index at 10. Lockhart speaks tonight. the biggi will be CPI and housing starts in the morning. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule -  The next 6 days are POMO days. (really we'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Minis are all over the place. From the close the futures had a steady climb to 80 and then about 1am they had an abrupt fall to 73. They then showed some real resilience and climbed to 81 and here we are now at 77 up 5. That must have been an interesting night.

What is the market going to do today? Do we have ANOTHER red POMO day? Well, I am a bit clueless right now. Dailys diving down, yet, oversold, 6o bottoming and 3o and 15m pushing up. Will they further embed or do they allow a corrective? Pretty much nailed my 77 target but did not get there the way I thought we would. We're missing a bigger corrective off 83. So I am in a position where I have to follow the markets lead today. Up to the double fib confluence or upper diagonal near 94 OR it slides down the lower diagonal to one of several stopping points. I have had a third and final target of the 50dma and Lower BB conjunction near 63 as a fail safe if 77 went awry. Then you have the two 38% fibs at 55 and 44 and the 200dma and Lower BB support at 30. I do think there is more near term downside to come, but that is not guaranteed.

SPX 15m - The cleanest chart I got. Black diagonal was wedge support off 1040. Looks oversold with some slight buy divergences to me. I assume that support diagonal is the one. I cant see anything else to draw. The channel is gone. One thing to note is that if that support diagonal stays in play, the slope vs any rise in price will require another dramatic fall to hit it again. Just something to think about.

Daily Cycle/Target Chart - Well, it worked again. Looking for the black box for the next bottom and then a pop to the red box (not set for proper target at time time) for what should be the top of tops. Note price is almost into actually touching the top of the retracement target box.

 As for the GM IPO, I totally agree with Hedge Fund Titan Steinhardt Says He Would Sell GM Stock "As Quickly As I Can". Should be an interesting day.

GL and thanks for the views and support.