Thursday, November 11, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Happy Veterans Day! Please remember and honor those that serve our country.

CSCO tells us what we all already know, everything is a fraud. Maybe the current administration or the Fed forgot to sent the memo to CSCO that any negative data is to be fraudulently reported as positive. Not even CNBS could spin this mess. What does this do for QEII? It strengthens the case that the purely reactive Fed and administration, which has done nothing to create real reform or proactive policies, to continue their reflation/fraud efforts to mislead the country that we're actually recovering.

What may be even more important than CSCO is Harbinger Is A Harbinger Of Things To Come: Goodbye Phil, You Are Just The Start the death of the hedge fund industry. The darling of all worthless piss ant financial advisers everywhere that are not capable of thinking for themselves may be about to crumble. Yes, those little wealth leaches that can't define beta, much less alpha, whose sole purpose if to bring in assets so the "big boys" can do their thing are about to take one in the kisser. This is yet another wake up call for the individual to get off their ass and get involved in the day to day management of their financial assets. (Sorry to those few FA's that actually do know what the hell you are doing and have an honest bone in your body, my apologies.)

This Insider Selling Hits All Time Record Of $4.5 Billion In Prior Week As Everyone Is Getting Out Of Market and this 27th Consecutive Week Of Domestic Fund Outflows are vital pieces of information to tell you what CNBS will not. 

Economic Calendar -  Really quiet week for data. Thursday is Vetrans Day. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today. The next MONTH is basically all POMO days. 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Minis are down just over 7 at their worst levels overnight, but not accelerating at this point at 1205. 1201 was the low yesterday. Resistance is as 1212 and 1216.1200 and 95 are support.

SPX Daily - Not sure if I have show you this chart. Basically some key indicators from the top in April. Similarities are all over the place. The big difference is the QEII blow off top or induced pop where the turn looked to be taking place. The lowering MACD hist continued yesterday and is apparently going to lower today as well.
SPX 60m - boy the bulls had this one just about where they wanted it with POMO starting tomorrow and continuing basically for the next month. What I have been tracking is 2 possible HnS formations. the two necklines are the blue support diagonals. Pullback here to the 90 area and then begin the RS or a deeper pullback to the 70 area are both possible. Unfortunately, I would consider them both unlikely with the QEII support I am anticipating.
We're in a topping process that could last till June. I have been forecasting to end of January or February as the topping point regardless of QEII. Data will continue to drag, earnings (like CSCO) reports are going to be tough to deal with. Thanks to the Fed, QEI, QE Lite and the simple promise of QEII inflation is real and can not be ignored (we will deflate, I promise). When input costs hit earnings and margins get destroyed combined with 17%+ unemployment and a credit strapped consumer whose net wealth is declining it will be game over.

As I have been discussing since the beginning of the blog, the market is all they have left between them and anarchy. I have argued they would protect market values at all cost and have been spot on there. Ben finally admitted this just last week. It has all been a fraud since the 936 level I suspect. Reflating the bubble is not going to work this time. These troubles are real and the death of the USA as the global financial leader is long overdue. Voodoo economics combined with zero regulation have allowed a certain few to dominate the wealth grab at the expense of the rest of us. When this ends the results will be devastating. We will recover. We will be great again, but not until we rid ourselves of the leaches and parasites at the top.

As for the markets and investing. This CSCO announcement is just the first of many. The choppiness will continue. At this time I am leaning for the ramp-n-rectangle trend to continue till at least the end of the year. I am suspecting 1240 to 1250 will be the max (unless the Fed really rips this thing up then add 100 to those points). The market should not fall before Xmas. They can't let it. I am a believer in the fact that this market is rigged beyond a point anyone can fathom. With retail basically out of the game, the Fed controlling inflows and the PD's controlling trading how can you bet against them. I'm still waiting on my catalyst that I have been calling to rip the markets from their control.

Happy Veterans Day and GL!