Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Ireland, gold and silver margin increases, And 14 Pieces Of Bad Economic News That Are So Horrifying You Might Not Want To Read Them Standing Up. Not good. I believe the collapse is ahead of schedule (possibly the first and only thing to be in that position during this whole crisis). The things on the back burner were neglected and are beginning to burn now. Smoke detectors are going off. I suspect we'll have a full blown grease fire by the end of January (and the Barry's administration will debate for a month before deciding to either throw money or water on the grease fire).

Ifyou believe the PPI numbers this morning, please check your unicorn at the door before you enter the building next time (same can be said for the CPI tomorrow).

Economic Calendar -  Industrial Production at 9:15 and then Housing Market Index at 10. Lockhart speaks tonight. the biggi will be CPI and housing starts in the morning. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule -  The next 7 days are POMO days. (really we'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Dollar/SPX comparisong chart needs no explanation -
Comparing some key global indexes - Blow off tops abound (and the two most monetized are extremely overbought).
SPX/VIX/USB and TNX comparison - boy has this chart changed on the bond side. Are the 30 and 10 yr about to play a game of chicken? One thing for sure is the markets will react to the bonds sooner than later. They are moving now, but risk off trade is coming sooner than later. That will exacerbate things on the EQ side. Calling Dr. VIX. Calling Dr. VIX. You are needed in reality.
SPX daily - Well, I said last week the similarities to this top and the one in April were astounding (actually worse with a blow off top). Right now I am watching RSI14 to see how it reacts with the 50 line. If that fails significantly it would not be good. BPNYA and TRIX about to bear cross. NYMO reaching a critical point where it has bottomed recently. Bottom line is this chart is FUGLY!
UPDATE - Two more quick charts to keep an eye on. 
Is the dollar maxed out?

Is the AUD/JPY maxed out?

Even in the face of all the disaster surrounding us I am in the camp that this is not "the" fall and we'll (courtesy of POMO and your administration) have one last pop after this fall. We have apparently cycled back into another bad news period where the EU is needing more bailouts and finally barking about the benefits of QEII and is it worth the risk. This round of POMO has surprisingly been a great failure to this point. Makes you wonder where all those billions are going doesn't it? They certainly are not flowing into the markets like some of us expected (at least at this time).

Looks at this time my first target of 93 may get dusted this AM and my second target of 77 is now in play. I expect the markets to fall this morning (to 87ish) and then raise back possibly as high as 97 and then have one last drop to 77. The problem with that is the GM IPO on Thursday. I would suspect they would want a "happy" market going into that one. Calculating that, the IPO may happen in a corrective or just after a significant low in the markets. Bottom line is that sellers are happy and POMO is AWOL (where are all those billions going - Ireland?).

So we continue falling today and tomorrow morning and then the reversal for the GM IPO happens. Let's see how that plays out.

GL and thanks for the views.