Friday, October 17, 2014

Morning Charts 10/17/2014 SPX /es

So much to talk about, and I'm not feeling it, so ...

On to the lie - 

SPX 60m - This chart kind of puts my brain in perspective. What was once an elaborate and elegant top setup has become a jumbled mess. Rising wedge, backtests, overthrows, divergences, classic breakdowns have all given way to ... a tumble that is still trying to identify itself. Was/Is the breakdown a channel, a wedge, a megaphone, a channel again or none of the above? Technical underthrows are now commonplace where for the past five years they were virtually outlawed. Oversold is now a term that I will even entertain using (lightly or temporarily). As I said yesterday, I guess when a lie comes unwound (temporarily or permanently - not sure of the case here yet) things can get a bit ugly. 

SPX 15m - Again, this is STB's brain on crack. What was once clean and neat, just the way I like it - mostly predictable following some predictable or forseable order - the bottom just keeps falling out. What's worse? Dare I say that my counting (don't do it - just don't) has worked better than anything I've been able to throw at it. Scary - if I'm counting this right - and some other count's I've looked at confirm - we're just getting started. Now let me say this, I've always, always out-called and out-timed the counters, and I will not be beat. 

Chaos - that's what breakdowns are all about. This market is like some freak transgender looking for an identity right now. It's difficult when your boyfriend/sugar daddy has sent you out into the cold having lied and misled you about reality for the past 5 years. To make things worse, he teases you about how he may actually start funding your hopium habit again. What a mess. 

I actually believe I call a falling market better than a booming one. This will be my third shot at a major breakdown - I guess it takes a bit of time getting your bearings when the poles flip. That is, if it has flipped. Let me add that I still don't think the STB "event" has happened unless Ebola is it. Another issue this time is that we've never dealt with a truly, unprecedentedly manipulated falling market before. This may be the first rodeo of such for all of us. One thing is certain - the stakes have never been higher. 

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GE!

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