Friday, October 10, 2014

Morning Charts 10/10/2014 SPX /es

 No commentary today. I think you've got the big picture. 

On to the lie - 

First, I think on the first big fall (which should be now) all the gains from the first/initial overthrow at the beginning of 2013 - where in 2011 I said the market would top cause they could not extend things any further - which at that point they initiated QE4eva or it rightfully would have vaporized then - will be taken back - this means DOW 14,475, SPX 1475 and RUT 868 - or a backtest of the prior ATH levels of each. It should not take long to get to these levels either. About the only question is can they hold the market up or ramp it one last time into the election as they did into prior elections. I'm not sure they will be able to this time. That said, the Fed has proven they are capable on anything related to lifting the market - regardless of the situation.

INDU Daily - First let's start back in the beginning of 2013 when price overthrew the long term rising blue wedge. This was the point where the true ridiculousness truly started (around 13,650). From here price formed the red rising wedge of insanity. Almost two improbable years later, we arrive at this -

After a failure of the red rising wedge and backtest of busted support to make the double top and technical overthrow of the negative divergences price has now fallen to ultra critical support from near term support diagonal (blue) and the 200 dma. If this should fail then the next stop is the long term blue rising wedge support near 15,700 (That's 1,000 points from here). Then the near term black diagonal support lies near 15,400. The final support in this area is the old blue rising wedge resistance near 15,250. Below that is the 38% retracement off the climb off the Nov '12 lows near 14,775. 

This is a perfect technical setup of disastrous proportions. If support fails here, the CME/PPT will have more than its hands full trying to manage the carnage that will come. I've often said, the herd is not going to sit this through another 2008. They will exit and possibly all at once. Vaporized will be the headline. If you think they have issues managing the ebola fears, just wait for their darling DOW to falter. 

RUT Weekly - The consequences of the INDU setup above can be seen on the RUT. Meet upper LT resistance at improbable levels, rising channel failure, backtest at double top with horrible negative divergences and let go. RUT taking out key support yesterday setting a lower low was really not good. 1025 and 980 are RUT key support points and should be the targets from here.

SPX Weekly - Sorry that note on the chart that I wrote well over a year and a half ago about the market crashing before this point did not say at this point. TA is amazing, I have always had faith price would get it right, and I knew this point was absolutely as far as they could manage the run before price took over. Funny, Prechter makes millions talking shit, and I generate possibly the most prophetic chart anyone has produced in years and get ... bubkus. 

SPX Monthly - Wonder if I'll get any cred when this target box gets hit? I drew this before the one above. 

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

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