Monday, April 14, 2014

Morning Charts 04/14/14 SPX /es

A some point soon I'm gonna have to start going full bore fear post/rant and not take my foot off the peddle. Let's say I'm gonna have to revert to the STB of old. What got me (and most of us) here, what the people love and want moar of, it will be coming back with a vengeance soon.

Reversion to the mean, it happens. It is a natural occurrence. Just like what the markets are destined to do. I, like the market, became complacent. It was painfully obvious where we were headed five years ago when I started writing the blog. It became painfully boring to write about where we were headed. About the only original calls I have left to come home are my "event" call, multiple market closures after the next crash, the massive global default call and the deflation before hyperinflation call. I'll have to look, but I think I can claim a 4 handle dollar technical call as well.

After the original blog banter and rants we hit the 'follow the Fed' stage for well over 500 consecutive blog posts. That got a bit sickening, so thank goodness it's finally time for a change and to start screaming real warnings from the mountain top again. Say it with me STB old timers - Guns, ammo, food, water filter, gold, silver and get out of the dollar.

This little piss ant nothing blog that will never receive any recognition (except from ZH, WB, Mish and KD who have me on their bog rolls - thank you very much - and you of course) has been on the ultimate right side of the trade all along. The get the frick out of everything, it's all gonna burn to the ground, do the math, ultimate destruction and complete disaster call, as hard as it was to believe it is going to come home.

In the mean time I've also had a pretty sporty track record at calling this rigged POS market. Warning about the '10 and '11 tops months in advance and calling them within a day. Nailing the bottoms to boot and then not having called a top since. From my 'unprecedented manipulation' back in August of '12 we've ridden this fraud all the way to here. It's time, but not right now, just not quite yet, close, extremely close, like (pick your favorite color) hair close to the next top.

After this you better be ready. When the Fed loses control or its own member banks, when the government and the Fed stop coordinating and start fighting, when the sheeple riot after their wealth destruction is realized (or confiscation occurs), you better be ready. We are gonna riot. They are gonna shut down the internet, water and power, and then all control will be lost. Much more on all of this to come.

I believe we'll come out of it just fine as long as the Americans, the patriots, can win. It's the entitled libtards that are our main problem. We'll get into this later - just start prepping if you have not - and remember, as always - pay cash for everything (especially gold) you can. These purchases can not be tracked.

On to the lie -

Top - that's a big word. Like a major friggin word that carries connotations and ramifications I'm not sure many of us are ready to contend. Like real fucking deal market and societal collapse would be a couple of issues that would accompany such an event. Of course the government and the Fed know this, so they can't let the market crash (or even correct). So far the run at 1900 failed twice and lower lows have been set as we enter earnings season.

STB quarterly earnings rant - elevator version - lower estimate before earnings, beat by a penny, miss revenues, guide lower to lower next hurdle, stocks go up. Over and over and over again it happens this way. QE raises all tides no matter how many holes are in the ship they all seem to stay afloat just fine. Well, those hole ridden hulls are about to collapse when reality finally wins over fantasy, and my friend, boats without bottoms - they don't float anymore.

Technically we're in a nasty, nasty, nasty spot. Politically, socially and financially both here and abroad were in a nasty spot. I'm not quite sure how I'm holding my tongue here on a top call. It has to be my fear of the Fed and 100% market manipulation. I obviously believe that markets are going to crash, but having seen what we've all seen, I have to digest this a bit more before I make a call.

Minis 30m - I give all sorts of details on where we are and could be headed weekly. Today is not the day for a summary, sorry. Bottom line is price broke the STB red diagonal of death Friday, and it got back under LT blue market resistance. This opened Pandora's box to much much lower targets. The STB red diagonal of death has stopped every fall on this run since the lows in '12. Everyone is holding their breath here.

I warned hard about the potential epic reversal point Thursday starting Wednesday. Then blue falling channel support got nailed Friday. The keys today - Resistance area up to 1833 and support from 1795 to 1791. This is the real deal. This is the shit. Watch 91 like a hawk cause sell stops should be under that. Above 1830 and the buying may start again. More on all of this below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

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