Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Morning Charts 04/14/2015 SPX /es

Earnings season, this is the time I usually sit back, contemplate, watch and see what sort of magic they are going to reveal (or not). Earnings season is typically a time when technicals can be thrown out the window and daily trading becomes a crap shoot. As most know earnings season plays like this - a beat (due to GAAP trickeration with missed revenues) is followed by increased estimates and guidance across the board which everyone celebrates, then later come the downgrades (that are never punished cause QE is constantly in lift mode) which lower the hurdles for next quarter, and then they magically beat estimates again. Pretty simple stuff. Add the plethora of buybacks to the list this year and the waters become even murkier. Markets, especially the Q's, are in limbo till AAPL reports, so that's a month or so of simply waiting after the financials are finished for the market to make its final determination of how earnings season goes. 

The problem is - does good = good, does good = bad or does bad = good? Liquidity, dollar, Greece, oil, rates; so many external factors these days overshadow earnings. What does the Fed need short term and long tern for earnings to say? How do they merge the two time periods? Confusion is the last thing the Fed needs now. they need either consistently bad or good, not in between. The markets want consistency now and are tired of this half and half crap they've been delivering over the past year or so.

On to the lie - 

Now you tell me where to find the truth - 

US retail sales rebound, post largest gain in a year


Retail Sales Misses For 4th Month In A Row For First Time Since Lehman

SPX 60m - Instead of battling critical support, price is now in a tussle with its first round of strong resistance. We've been watching this battle for some time now. Indicators are giving few clues as to direction.

Freedom Watch -  

On the 1 year anniversary, the media and the government are still spinning the Bundy Ranch standoff misrepresenting the issues that led up to it and lying about what happened. See video here.

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

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