Friday, July 20, 2012

Morning charts 07/20/12 $SPX $ES

So earnings season rolls along adding to the market's paralyses caused by the deteriorating everything on one side and the promise of never ending QE on the other. Yes, frustratingly, the bad news is really good news trade lives on. It is more apparent than ever that the Bernanke Put is all that supports this market. So we (the realist bears) wait. We wait for a crack.

The charts are trying to tell us that a crack is trying to show and that the underlying support is crumbling if non existent. Patience still rules the day as the markets do the improbable day after day. The control mechanism appears to be more content than ever (and blatant) to maintain price levels no matter the circumstances. It is possible that this meant the true end is near and my "event" may be all that's left to bring this market down.

Obummer called Putin this week to talk about Syria. That's a pretty big deal. Well  they say they discussed Syria. I'm pretty sure Obummer was more interested in discussing Putin's recent "win" and just how he went about instituting total control over the USSR. Syria is a pretty serious deal that is about to boil over. Remember the Manchurian Manbat needs a war to get reelected. Not a small one either. A big one that would have to involve Russia and China. No wartime president has ever been voted out of office. In this case we may not even get a chance to vote, our socialist leader may just cancel elections and declare himself ruler supreme.

Bottom line is as I showed in the charts yesterday, something is coming. The charts are not perfectly aligned just yet, but this setup is coming on the tails of the last set up that hit at 1420. the 1420 setup worked, but not to its full extent (uh, hello PPT). The markets are primed for a major drop. Adding to the well timed war dilemma and the charts setup is the need to ease.

We've been discussing a manufactured crash (for over a year now) to allow the call for QE3 to come without any resistance. They can not pull that off with the markets at these levels, but if they can create some panic, they can get their easing. The next few months should be interesting. Don't forget that your government is about to run out of cash again this fall.

Minis Daily - It is a messy chart, but I need every line on it. Note the pink diagonal resistance off the 1420 top. Note the double top at 1374 resistance. Rising blue wedge into all that resistance. Rising green wedge inside the rising blue wedge into double top resistance. Are you starting to get the picture? Shall I add the deteriorating indicators and opex Friday?

Minis 60m - A better look at the double top. All your support and resistance points are clear on this chart.

SPX Daily - This chart along with a couple others have been causing my confusion. You all know my BTFD/STFR chart is screaming sell. This chart is still not quite ready along with a couple of others (BP and CPC). This may not matter as the two charts I rely on the most, BTFD and the minis, are both really ready to turn right now. If the PPT and Fed can pull off more upside action from here it should be muted and short lived as price above the 1374 level has little oxygen to survive at those rarefied altitudes.

Have a great weekend.

GL and GB!

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