Wednesday, September 14, 2011

STB Morning Post 09/14/11

I can't pull it out exactly when, but I remember a period this year when the DOW minis fell over 100 points 5 out of 7 nights and wanted to crash just like the last three nights and the markets subsequently rallied out of that set up. The euro zone is driving the minis down overnight and they are rallying to "hide" the underlying weakness by the open. I'm not sure why the markets have had two green days, but they have.

I don't know how the markets can be sure of anything given the underlying issues globally and here in the US. What we have learned here at STB is that what is isn't. You can't get caught up in what "should be". The markets are totally controlled. As stated here many times the markets are all they have between them and a revolution in this country. The pension system is underfunded and on the verge of collapsing. It can not afford another "dip" in the markets as asset values give the impression (or illusion as STB likes to call it) all is well.

Not going into the EU to much this morning, but the MerKozy meeting this afternoon should be a market mover. the fact that they are just meeting is a market mover. Sadly, the fact that people meet to solve issues moves the markets (with false HOPE) is a cold reality these days and a good example of the above, where you can't invest on what you know is real. You have to invest with the market, the news and the Fed. You actually have to separate reality from the markets at this time. Yea though there will come a time in the not to distant future when they will correlate and it all will come crumbling down.

Minis - Reversed nicely of 1178 resistance this morning. You can see all the diagonals and stuff. There are an unusual amount of patterns in the markets right now. I'll refer to the various diagonals in this chart during the day wen calling targets and levels. As most know, the comment section is the meat of STB with everyone calling trades and me calling real time levels. Yesterday I charted the board to death. If you want more STB and get even deeper into the analysis you have to read the comments section. I'll give the 1m VWAP and 200ma update real time in the comments as usual.

SPX 30m with 13/34 - Yesterday I showed all the 13/34's in the comments - the 15m has a set up for a turn and that time frame has been the most accurate in predicting turns lately. The ST time frames are ready. As we progress thru the charts (5, 10, 15, 30, 60 and daily) the earlier ones show when the markets are getting ready and the later ones confirm that readiness. You can see the upper resistance diagonal on this chart and the one above. STB will be watching this resistance closely.

XII Daily - I pull this chart out every now and then - note the dollar and TNX convergence at lows and the subsequent spike or rally that this confluence brought late last year.  Of course QE was involved (and the sole reason for the rally). Pink is dollar bouncing off LT support (breaking out possibly/unrealistically) and green is TNX approaching LT support.

STB update - They seem to have found the problem - I blew up the Hostopia platform. STB was to big to handle for the blog platform. Yes, in 9 months STB overwhelmed the host. Whether you believe this or not is another thing. There is a chance will be back up by Friday, but I'm not ready to release you all to there yet. Hang out here till you get the all's clear notice.

GL and GB.

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