Sunday, January 9, 2011

Should We Be Calling A Top, Techincally?

Well, POMO and eternal stimuli are the obvious answer why it would be ill advised to call a top. Eternal fraud, manipulation and corruption are other obvious reasons. So for your entertainment, here are a few charts that emphasize why I think we're close. I have speculated since the beginning of the blog that it would take an external event to rip the markets from the Fed's control. Till that event (since the presses are obviously not going to run out of ink) the bears have to hold on. Many, many factors will go into this topping process that are not discussed here. I'm just looking at it technically.

I'm not sure if a top is in or not. I'm not actually sure if even technicals matter anymore (we all know fundamentals are totally unreliable). You looks at the charts and draw your own conclusions. 

Chart 1 - My CPC chart

Chart 2 - Daily SPX with dovergences and the move for wave 1 from 1010 to 1129 just about equals wave 5 from 1173 to the recent top at 1278. Just a few points shy of my 1283 target

Chart 3 - Weekly SPX may not be ready yet. The last two tops occurred after a divergence in the TRIX which has not even bear crossed yet.

10 SMA intervals - I am strangely growing fond of this chart and think it will confirm a top.

Index comparison Monthly - Bloated? RUT, TRAN and COMPQ approaching '07 highs. Really? And this is deserved, why? What is so much better now than at the bloated bubble top then?

More detailed stuff to come soon. Be on the lookout for the new .com blog coming a week from Monday. Mo better for you.

GL and GB.