Thursday, January 13, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

No matter what happens on the cash side, the minis are simply tracking that support/resistance diagonal that goes back to the beginning of this run in late August. Here is the action since support became resistance in early November.So the minis are simply trending higher on lower volatility. You call that a churn. Not gonna OD on charts this AM as the topping process is continuing. See past few posts for more detail if you like.

We hit the 1283 SPX target I had. Things look tentative everywhere. I am still holding the TZA and SDS trades from yesterday and will guard them carefully. At this point I must continue to caution about further upside action no matter what the charts say. The Fed (broken record) is in control with POMO and you MUST yield to them and follow their lead. Markets are super toppy. I think this is the last move up. I really hope to hit my late January/early February top in time. We have hit the 1283 target. Remember those round numbers are like emotional magnets and they also contain hidden offers, so 1300 is something you MUST know is in the neighborhood. My 30m short chart $TRIN sell signal is going off, so let's look down and see if the bears can gain any momo and at least get yesterday's move back. Baby steps here.

I'll keep saying it till it happens, but until they pull liquidity or we have my exogenous event, you need to be really careful taking your short shots. Don't worry about nailing the top and eking out that first two percent. There will be plenty of time to make money once the turn is in. It is more important to get the trade right and invest with discipline (as hard as that is to do sometimes). Always have a plan and always use stops. Most importantly, never be afraid to end the relationship with a losing trade.

Jobs disappoint. Natgas at 10:30.

The new POMO schedule is here!

Earnings calendar is here. INTC after the close and JPM in the AM.

Econ calendar here. Plenty of action tomorrow morning that can move the markets.

GL and GB.