This is really important. Back in the weeks leading up to the 4th when I threatened to call a top (and subsequently got lucky I got kidney stones and went on vacation which kept me from calling it - we did get a really large correction though), I constantly ranted on the fact that getting out with your profits, all the way out, as into your mattress or out of the dollar and into alternative assets is what you should be considering. I warned of quick retreats and the dangers of evaporation of gains which was more than evident in late July.
Here we are ramping into the next holiday on a very similar trajectory as that of the 4th, but the divergences and conditions have actually worsened. You need to read this post - The Retail Trader Lockout - Today's 'Market' "Issues" Were Worse Than The Flash Crash. "For 39 minutes today, as we noted earlier, the US stock "market" broke. As Nanex details, a total of 1,384 symbols were affected as 100s of stocks trade with crossed NBBOs, practically eliminating any chance for retail traders to transact." If you think this is a 'one- off' event, you will be mistaken. If you think it is safe to play this thing to the top, and you will have a leisurely exit you may not.
Remember they closed the "gates" a month or so ago allowing them the ability to 'protect' your assets in their vaults. This was your unintended relinquishing control of your assets in their system. Do the words 'Capital Controls' ring a bell? They should ring a gong and start flashing red lights and alarms screaming in your head. When this thing finally cuts loose it's not gong to be any fun. Sure, we all may make hundreds of thousands on the way down (while they allow us to short), but when the TBTF's are failing are they going to allow you to have any of that well waited for cash? What good will it do to be sitting on a 6, 7 or 8 figure account if you can't touch it?
Want to add to the absurdity - how far are we down the rabbit hole? It Begins: Council On Foreign Relations Proposes That "Central Banks Should Hand Consumers Cash Directly" The CFR must see some very real issues if this is being considered. Wait, we just went from not being able to get cash to having QE directly injected into our wallets? This would be Helicopter Ben times a gazillion?
Just how bad is this economy if they are contemplating the Keynesian wet dream? If this news gets out to the entitled they won't be able to back off and will have to deliver 'or else' I'm thinking. It's the 'or else' part of that thought that is bothersome. Anyone know where all this cash is gonna come from? Is anyone gonna care if they increase the national debt by a few trillion? I don't think anyone (except the few and brave here on STB) would dare complain.
Want to see what I think is a good representation of what will go down? This by no means is directed racially, it is a skit, it is just a representation of what I think things would look like if they just started writing checks.
Embedded disabled it is so good - I seriously believe this is the end scenario that the Fed and CFR would be dreaming of -
On to the lie -
GDP revision - no way, impossible, like that's never happened before - you know over promise and under deliver - 4% should be upped to double digits if you ask me! Who cares, whatever, consumer Sentiment is through the roof! All is well. Holiday ramp is in full ramp mode - well, it was. Can't have all those folks at home worried about their retirement assets and investments - hey, I got an idea - why not have the CFR spread a rumor they are gonna start just giving cash to everyone - straight cash homie! That would be awesome!
SPX 60m - Falling off a cliff. Well, the indicators are at least. So, does this run up only resemble the first leg up of the last ramp? Do we have a few weeks of churn to come, or is this thing ready for a stone cold reversal? This puppy ain't going south (even if the market breaks like yesterday) without some sort of threatening news I'm afraid. Who knows, maybe some sort of reality is coming back to the old market?
More to come below.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!