As noted, I will not be here today, so y'all hold down the fort. I'll be here the rest of the week.
Since everyone is so high on top talk, I thought I would share some quick thoughts on trading and timing. Of course any discussion now really starts and ends with market and data manipulation. Take the ISM debacle from yesterday, the weekly BLS BS, the GDP revision - add all of that and more to the LIBOR or any other rigging reality you want to and then tell me,what sort of market is there left?
What's left? Whats real? How have we gotten to this point and why? Why do we still discuss this shit daily? Why are your hard earned assets still in the markets? Are there more important things we should be doing?
With that out of the way, here are some basic STB trading thoughts - My thoughts - they are not perfect or rules or whatever - just some basics I follow.
Learn from your mistakes, never get greedy, take what the market gives you, always protect positions, nothing 'has to happen', do not fight momo, know the difference between risk capital and core assets and don't ever cross that line.
Perfect entries exist but how often do you get them? As good as I am with TA and my calls even I abandoned the constant search for the perfect entry. I still hit a few, but it is no longer an obsession. Getting the trade right is far more important, maximizing is not.
Again, nothing has to happen and don't fight momo. You want your winning percentage to far outweigh your losing percentage. If that's not 70/30 or better, you need to rethink a lot of things. Leaving money on the table happens, get over it. Never argue with a winner.
This market is not your father's market or any that you have ever known. I'm pretty sure that 90% of the people that read this blog have finally bought in to the riggedness of this market. If you have not, you need a reality check. The proof, real honest to God truth, is delivered almost daily. All you have to do now is look and listen.
I'm not going into QE, taper, liquidity intervention, ZIRP and all that now. We cover that endlessly. I'm not going into another rant about how they can't let it even correct. You have heard that at least 1,000 times from me. Bottom line is NOTHING is real, and we sit here and wonder about tops and such ..... really?
I'll reiterate that right now, right here is about as perfect a technical top as there could be. We're technically there on so many levels and metrics. We're closing on on my weekly chart's ultimate destination point. We have got to be close, like any moment close now.
Are they ready? Ready for what? Will they let it fall? Are there still any natural forces that could cause some sort of turn? Let's think about this - co-located servers, no regulation and a corrupt government and banking system that is desperate to maintain power and control - hmmmmmm ......
Oh, and don't for one second forget about the CDS market - fractal lending - my, my, my, how has that all drifted from mainstream consciousness - not mine - that's a quadrillion market - talk about one big ass elephant in the room.
So, are you still concerned about the top? What are you gonna do? Are you planning on timing it, sell it and get out? Ya think it is gonna be that easy? What do you think is going to happen when this thing corrects for real - ya think they are just going to let you sell, cash out and walk away with all your FRN's? Really? (reminder - FRN = Federal Reserve Note) Two words - CAPITAL CONTROL.
You and how many millions of others are waiting to do this? Sure, just tell us where to send your assets. Ya think that will be their response? Demand deposits no longer exist. Oh, and as for the FDIC and your 'insurance' LOL.
I want you all to consider the bigger picture. The market is nothing more than a distraction at this point. They are keeping you in the game which keeps them alive and well. Without your assets they lose. It is not exactly a symbiotic relationship as they prey on you for fees and skimming your trades to survive (most know my thoughts about most financial advisers and brokerages).
So, the top, does it really matter? Are you going to make a fortune on the way down? Whose on the other side of those shorts that going to pay you again? Open your mind. Get in touch with reality. Find your truth. Do your research. Ask yourself the really tough questions. Then act on what you in your heart feel is most important.
I still think there is some time to start skimming profits and removing FRN's from the system and trading them out for real assets. There is not much time, but some. There is not a better deal - you get to trade inflated fiat for gold and silver and walk away. What are you waiting for?
Have a good day.
GL and GB!