Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Morning Charts 01/15/14 SPX /ES

So earnings season rolls along with another shady beat and all the glory that goes with it. This morning it was BAC's turn to twist accounting reality. I'll spare you the details, but as usual loan loss reserves were a key player in the beat. The one item that may raise some eyebrows (especially here in budget week for the cash strapped government) was their avoidance of taxes. I guess when it's all funny money on a spreadsheet what does it really matter what you pay in taxes? 

On to the lie - 

There is really not much left to discuss about the farce they still call a market. At this time all you can do is wait on the inevitable, which to some appears to be coming sooner than later. The whole trading universe is finally on one side of the boat. Finally someone looked up, noticed and said something. This led to others noticing which has now led to the brilliant financial minds of the day warning of corrections to come. 

We bears should have a near term problem with that. When bully starts treading on your bear turf, that is usually not a good sign. When even the bulls are calling for a top or correction, there comes cognitive dissonance. Not good. You stay on your side of the field and I'll stay on mine. That's the way the game is supposed to be played and when you come over here things get screwed up, so please get back in your box and stay there. 

This sort of leads me back to my "Event". I don't know how many times I'm gonna have to say it, but it's going to take an external (exogenous) "event" that is out of "their" control for this thing to have a meaningful turn. I believe that something has happened that we do not know about which has caused them to either lose a degree of control or that for them was a game ending move. It is possible they are simply hanging on right now. 

I've shown the charts. They were ridiculous two years ago and are twenty times worse now. All there is to do now is sit and wait. How you choose to do that is your choice. I think prepping and moving out of the dollar into real assets is the way to go. The longer you stay in this farce of fiat the harder and more expensive it will be to convert (if you even get the chance). 

Minis 30m - I'm watching the yellow falling channel here and the backtest of the beige and pink diagonals. Kind of a STB point right above. I'm interested to see what may happen there. I remain bearish for many reasons, but that does not mean they can't remain in stomp the bears mode either. 

 SPX Daily - Black rising wedge. When they lose this support, it should be all over.

More to come below.
Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

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