Friday, January 10, 2014

Morning Charts 01/10/14 SPX /ES

STB speculated the vortex was going to effect the jobs report and they say it did. Only 74K Jobs Added In December, Huge Miss To Expectations Of 197K: Weather Blamed the whole jobs report was a complete bomb! Now, STB readers know to take this with a LA sinkhole worth of salt. All data is fabricated to direct fiscal policy. They have this thing called a budget due next week. Timing, coincidence? 

BUT, just how big a pickle are they in now? With so many masters to serve and various policy items driven by the jobs report all now diverging, can they put Humpty Dumpty back together again or have they finally gone too far? I suspect we're about to see the jobs reports start to swing very wildly depending on the week and who needs what sort of data when. 

This is an election year. Taper ON/OFF. Recovery? Congressional ratings (like they really matter anymore)? This bomb gave them the ammo they needed for Taper OFF (save the markets) and budget ON (make it easy to pass). Like earnings season, set the bar low. Low hurdles make for easier beats, and all the MSM will report is the beat no matter how meaningless the number is, thus shining a positive light on an otherwise dismal situation. 

On to the lie - 

Holy shiitake mushrooms Batman, what a mess they must be in. We have had some wild volatility all week. I've been a bear proponent noting the action to the downside has been more resilient or demonstrative than the Fed would like. As usual "they" allow a specific amount of dissent and then come in and crush any forming rebellion. They make their case that shorting remains a fools game and leave. 

Minis 30m - OK, this chart has gotten very busy again, but I promise every line here has meaning. I can't make it any cleaner than it is. Apparently lower pink rising wedge support is critical for bully. The upper resistance of the beige rising channel I drew yesterday appears to have meaning. The rising wedge formed between pink support and beige resistance is the formation things are trading in. Gap resistance is now in play. The 1837 STB bull/bear line was/is/was/is gone adding to some confusion (for me at least). 

It all looks to me like we have pesky bears participating in a rising wedge creating yet another overthrow situation with negative divergences that wants to fail at an approaching double top. If not the IHnS and ascending triangle target of 1849 needs to be watched and then the pink and green resistance near 1860. 

At this time you may feel like you are watching a tennis match and your neck may be getting soar. The Fed is at the net poaching everything, but the bears every now and then get an unexpected  good lob in. I'll reiterate that I think the bearish action this week has the Fed's panties in a wad. They are not into dissent and the bears are giving them hell right now. 

They needed a taper off event or an additional QE on event for the markets and got one with the jobs report this morning. So in essence they sacrificed congressional/political status in an election year in favor of the CB's this morning. Does that sound preposterous? Not really when you know who pulls the strings in DC anyway.

You must give this a watch and form your own opinions. Mini ice age coming? Changing electromagnetics in the solar system? All good stuff.

C(Lie)mate #3 - What Doesn't Make The News

Have a good weekend.

GL and GB!

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