Friday, July 5, 2013

Open Weekend Post 07/06-07/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

I'll update and research what I can this weekend and post anything if I find it. Could be a very interesting week next week with the 4th behind us and earnings bout to ramp up with AA on the dock Monday. .

UPDATE: Minis charts here is the rundown. This will also be my post Monday AM as I will be traveling then.

You had a green channel down off the top
They tried to break resistance and failed creating pink upper market resistance
Price failed the green resistance backtest fell back to green channel support
They then broke upper green channel resistance again (1602 my first major target)

Minis 4hr -

Minis 30m -

Price backtested green chan resistance for several days (also at the 38% retracement) forming the yellow channel up before
Moving to upper pink market resistance line where it sits now, having missed the STB point at 1630 by a day (intersection of brown and pink).
Just above all of this is a brown rising diagonal. That is the long term bull channel support off the 11/12 low. My second major target sits at the 61% retracement and the backtest of the brown LT channel support at 1635.

If they can get price above 1635 the bears may need to run for the hills one last time. If they crack 1631 then look for 1635. If that goes start looking to 1650. Anything above 1650 and a higher high should get set. I've been speaking ove the impending volatility that is associated with major tops forming, and we're beginning to see a bunch of that. The bears are getting back in the game and the fools bulls are defending their turf.

The 1630 to 50 area will be critical for the bears to defend. We're thru the 4th and earnings season starts Monday. I think we have some really good formations to work with technically here. Once thru my 1595 floor I was hoping to get to 1541 to set a neckline for a possible right shoulder to form. Price only fell to 1553, but that was close enough.

The markets are really ready to puke up a lung here from several technical perspectives, and earnings season is set up to be yet another disaster. For over a year I had Q1 as the end game point, that failed, but in Q2 the top may have been set. There is one problem though, the Fed and the central planners remain in total control. Taper talk drives price along with the central planner's HFT algos and bots. We're dealing with a 100% rigged market here.

Back at the beginning of the blog in  2009 I stated that "this will not end till an external event our of "their" control" happens. We need that exogenous event.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB.

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