Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

OK, Shanky's a little fired up this morning. Hearing Alice Cooper's Schools Out 5 times at 500db on the way to school and playing air guitar like a mad man with your children at 7:35 in the morning will get you a little loosened up.

What's up with this crazy insane market? The way CNBS and all the fund managers see it is all the problems are over and way behind us and the good times are back. We've had our correction and now it is time to march on to new highs. Shanky says not so fast. Even Scarface got taken town at the end, and I'm afraid that this market will make a dive similar to Scarface's plunge into the pond at the end. How quickly we can forget the problems that are all around us.

Economic Calendar - New Homes at 10 and Petrol at 10:30. Durable Goods numbers according to Bloomberg were not all that good, but the minis apparently don't care (remember the good times are BACK!). Tomorrow at 8:30 we get GDP. I'm positive the BLS or whatever bought and paid for agency that calculates this fictitious number will deliver some sort of glorious upside surprise showing just how "strong" our economy is.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Tough call this morning. Minis are battling resistance, so upside is possible, but might be hard to come by. I'm thinking we have one more small leg down to come that gets us to the 1020 to 1000 area before the bigger correction. The EWT people are calling for the third of a third still to come, but my math does not add up to where it can fit into the count at this time. I know, big bad super bear Shanky is saying no "super drop". Wrong, I'm just saying at this time I don't see where it fits into the manipulated POS market's picture.

Looking at the trusty daily chart, we're still in a down trend till RSI cracks its resistance line. I think that RSI cross of the resistance lines will mark the bottom of 1 of 1 of 3 and thus 3 of 1 may have been a dud on the EWT scale. So one more pop down is still possible here. There is no telling how big this corrective will be. I am really eyeballing the gap, 200ma and fib confluence near the 1110 area. the reaction to the GDP report tomorrow will tell us exactly where we are in the nt trend. I would be cautious with any positions going into that announcement in the morning especially shorts. You think the POS government we have is gonna disappoint?

Daily SPX- I'm not turning bullish, but I am thinking that a larger corrective may be in order sooner than later. I love tracking the daily indicators and unless they are getting ready to embed, then a pop is coming.the possible turn in the MACD histogram with the divergence to price is cause to think a turn is coming as well.

Now, after all that semi bullish gibberish stuff above I have to remind you that the world is falling apart. Trying to pick the rips in a down market is just as hard as playing the dips in an up market. You are picking against the trend. If the EWT people are right and a 3rd of a 3rd is still to come, look out if you are thinking long. It may come like a thief in the night and just clobber you one morning. So, at this time I'm calling for a reversal to the D touch of my falling wedge for what I think is 4 up to possibly either the 1091 area or the 1110 range and then 5 down to 1020 to 1000.

GL out there. Stay nimble. I'll do Oil, Gold, Dollar (possible double top) and Natgas posts soon.