Thursday, May 20, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Reality will always trump falsified financials. Oil hits 70. Gold hits 1175. Very interesting. Greece and Thailand protests. China in deep shit. Flight to safety is getting ready to enter full throw. Watch the bonds move. Minis off 18 with a low of 1089 (excuse me, as I type I will update this - now at 85 - and now 91!). Everyone has been waiting on the impulsive wave 3. This looks to be as good a start as any and the timing is right on the count. this could get really ugly. To those of you that bit when I called the Shanky top back on April 27th, mucho congratulaciones! Now go hit the donate button if you have not (to those of you that have, mucho gracias! esp to you ODA)

Earnings Calendar - DELL after the close

Economic Calendar - Jobs were bad despite Census hiring. Leading Indicators and Philly Fed at 10:00. Natgas at 10:30.

Pivot Points - Never mind. It has blown thru all of these. See fibs below.

Minis - Took out the 1090 low, next Flash Friday's low of 1066.5. Looking at the fibs. First the 38% off of the 667 low to high is near 1007. Coming off the more recent July low the 38% is 83, 50% is 41 and 61% is 1000. Given that, I think the confluence of the two retracements near 1000 gives the best target for this first drop (wave 1). 100 points from this level is reasonable, but might prove to be conservative if this things gets rolling like it can. At this time the minis are sitting on another confluence as the 23% off the 667 low is 1089 and the 38% off the July low is 1083. That intersection should be heeded as well (and has provided the first support level this morning). The support line running under the August/February lows was dusted this morning. A backtest of that line gets you to 1102 and resistance should be around 1105. I'm not sure anything (other than the PPT and a few circuit breakers) may stop it till it hits at least the July low of 40.75.

SPX - The Daily 200ma will be toast after the open and so will be the lower BB. The 200ma at 1102 also supports a backtest in that area. I think we had the triangle bust, the backtest was a 38% corrective retracement of wave 1 of 3 and if the impulsive wave three is here this is where it counts out to me. 1036 would be a good target for the end of 3. (to plug that in with the minis above - add a 4 corrective and a final 5th wave and you get to the emotional support level of 1000. Weekly BB support is at 1052.  The weekly RSI 50 support line will most likely be cracked by this move. This does not look good for the bulls.

Gotta back it out to a bigger picture. Link to chart is HERE. For us to see targets and fibs you are gonna have to start looking at bigger charts. Now, my original speculation was that wave 1 would bounce off of the bear market upper TL and then we'd have the two corrective. That line is almost in play and will effect trading as price gets in that range.I speculated it would take a 3 to bust thru it. Unfortunately I thought that would be in wave 3 later this year and not in 3 of 1. We may be a little ahead of schedule.

After thinking that my gold fall call had gone bad (the only thing I have really missed to this point) it apparently is still alive and kicking. See the Jesse's Cafe link in my post from last night if you are a gold bug. It is a must read.

I'll update with turns and targets if it really gets going good. Circuit breakers may com into play. Remember I have called for at least two market closures in P3 and theoretically they should come on third of thirds. I have also thrown out the possibility of wave 1 of P3 being the biggest of the 3 down waves in P3 the reason being the panic/capitulative sale may come up front and not in the middle or at the end. Let's see.

You may consider Live Feed From Athens As 100,000 Greeks Go On Strike, Consider Storming Parliament Again cause this till be what Washington will look like sooner than later. 

I almost forgot - Jobs disapoint.