早上好 - that's good morning in simplified Chinese. Well, they did it again - this time just a bit worse. Apparently jailing or executing a bunch of short sellers and market "manipulators" (or at least a few high profile ones) ain't enough to stop a market collapse. Not sure (other than closing or propping) what they are gonna be able to do with China's situation. We've all seen the fraud coming for years. I suggest you see the chart in this post Spot The Most Manipulated Market In The World. I also suggest you see the currency/market relationship in the charts in this post - Global Stocks Crash After Spiraling Chinese Devaluation Unleashes Worldwide Chaos And Selling. Note- when a country's currency is being devalued beyond its control (especially possibly the most controlled currency on the planet) that's usually not a good thing.
On to the lie-
OK, this is a tough one. We're dealing with the collapse of the world's largest economy. The economy that was supposed to launch us into the future. The economy that was going to take over the world and take us all to the promised land .... the economy that all of us here at STB and a few other alternative sites knew would implode and was not real despite what all the talking heads preached.
This is an "external event" (STB "event" possibly) that involves the most corrupt and controlling government on the planet (well, second to the USA of course). That factor (and the modern fake markets) makes it very difficult to call as a trader. It can turn on a dime - markets expect intervention to force it to turn. This is not your father's market anymore. When nothing is real, what in the world are you supposed to do as a trader/investor?
I don't have the answer to that question. All I can say is that I expected the markets/price and for TA to win in the end. Price will/always wins. Are we at that point? Possibly. Are we experiencing the LEH moment ahead of the big one? Not sure. Technically as I've tried to show and have noted markets have apparently reached a peak of some sort. I don't short or call my trades openly often, but my 2104 and 2109 shorts may well prove to have been pretty sporty.
I now believe the 2134 top has like a really high probability to have been "the" top and the more recent "Bullard" run to 2116 has the chance to have been the ultimate spot (top of a "2" so to speak or bull trap) to have shorted this multi-year "bull" market. Only time will tell - we still have QE4 and the most manipulated markets on the planet, so I'm still reluctantly and possibly regretfully holding out on an ultimate top call.
SPX Weekly - As for now - I'm gonna trade the three consolidation areas I've been calling with and eye down to the 1575 levels. Once the STB DoD (black Diagonal of Death) broke - that was it for me technically. It became only a matter of time then. Now all they have left is this black wedge and the blue LT channel support. I'd say sub the current low support of 1871 is that moment of truth you have to face and sub say 1500 is you have anything left in the markets the banks will be confiscating what's left. Remember, these are not your assets - they are theirs. the gates are closed. I've recommended that you take profits (all the way out) at tops for the past couple of years. It's your call whether to wait on the QE4 or not point. Just know that when the flood of exits come, as I've warned, everyone will head for the gates at the same time. Prolly best to be ahead of the crowd.
I'll get more into near term stuff below. In the meantime, that nasty close at the backtest of 1990 and the current HnS neckline (where I resisted getting long) - uh, yeah. Watch that 1965 level that every one was pointing to earlier this week. Sell stops should start triggering at 1985ish which may be gapped thru this morning. (Flash crash possibility is high this morning).
SPX 5m -
Freedom watch -
Think capital controls. When the Next Crisis Hits, the Monetary Gates Will Close on Accounts
More to come below.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!