Thursday, August 9, 2012

Morning Charts 08/09/12 SPX /ES

Let's run thru a few charts. In a round about way I'm trying to get across that the market should be forming a top here. Of course that would be in a normal, non-manipulated, non-crony capitalist controlled, fair and real market. This QE crap shoot is nothing ordinary or normal.

I'm thinking top soon, but reiterate that this market is now more rigged than ever and blatant intervention will be worse than ever the closer the elites come to the end game scenario. Maybe that black rising wedge below needs to finish. Maybe it doesn't. I'm waiting on a catalyst to break the bulls hold on price. I do believe the final top, or near it, will be blatantly obvious.

Index Comparison - You need to view this one on  Stockcharts at the link. All the major indexes in one place. SPX 3 consecutive rising wedges rolling over. RUT and Trannis lagging not setting higher highs with the rest of the crowd. Divergences on SPX are pretty nasty especially if price continues to the potential double top. The last black rising wedge is the bulls best hope (other than never ending QE intervention) as up for an E touch would complete a multi-year formation (although not necessary). There is a very real possibility when the daily chart sets the top this time that will be all she wrote.

Daily Index Comparison - Another, simpler, way of looking at the above. Notice the DOW and SPX running away and the TRAN and RUT lagging badly. Why the rush to safety and large caps? Hmmmm. Why are the once darling of the Fed, RUT, and the broader indexes out of favor? Oh, and if your broker still preaches "diversification" tell him.her to go stick it somewhere.

Monthly Cycle chart - You should see what I do and it ain't pretty. Of course the Fed and the crony capitalists see this as well and should try and use all their powers to defend the slump. The recent hook in MACD (the only other two times you see this on the chart is just prior to past tops) is a good indicator this is a last gasp bull top trap.

Weekly Indicator - looks worse than the Monthly chart above - There is nothing supporting price (well, other than the Fed). My long time call for the giant HnS chart is still alive.

As usual more charts and links below. If you want more explanation of the above let me know, I kind left y'all (especially the noobs) hanging this morning.

GL and GB.

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