Sunday, March 15, 2009
First look at the indicators on my $$ H SPX - Daily - One Year chart and the box I drew. Indicators at or approaching trend lines that with the current wedge/double top formation should cause a reversal. I think my $$ I SPX - Weekly chart tells the best story. Look at the indicators not the chart. If RSI breaks the LT trend line a real rally will be in place (this was learned/borrowed from Master Kenny). If not, then the down trend continues. For this reason I'm not gonna place calls on individual equities this week. I will update trend lines etc, but no calls. We're entering a brief period of uncertainty that if you gamble you could lose big. The rising wedge, 60m overbought and the daily indicators at trend lines should cause a ST reversal will throw us down Monday. As for 4.5 playing out and exactly where we are in the wave count is a mystery (sorry, but all the EWT counters are going in different directions now and the trend there is breaking down). I still like the 771 to 807 target for another turn down. Things have improved, but don't get too excited just yet. Let's see how earnings do this qtr.
Gotta go play the Wii with the kids for a while. See my VIX weekly chart with a possible STO bottom and other indicators turning that confirm the trend down.