Morning Charts 02/11/14 SPX /ES

Nothing new this morning. Just another MSM pukefest of lies and misdirection as they lay cover for their masters as the US and global economies rot to their cores. Yellen says the Fed is "likely" to continue its taper ON course. That's just great. So the Fed tapers and the global economy, especially in emerging markets, get hammered as a result of the taper ON.

Wait, global, hammered, cause of our Fed? That's right dear American taxpayer. Your future earnings and those of your children and grandchildren have been taken (not borrowed) by the Fed to fuel global growth stability via central bank lending, and now with the taper they are pulling the rug so to speak on the liquidity situations of these piigs on the teat.

This is just fine by the way. The global recovery is so strong that no one really relies on the Fed's continued printing to stabilize anything, do they? Note the operative word stabilize. One would think that growth would be an operative word here after the trillions flushed into the system that were fractally expanded. Wait, where did all this money go?  Well, you'll have to ask the 1% that question.

As their new taper ON policy shines a bright light on just how awesome the the Fed's policies have been, maybe the Fed's plan on continuing to manage the USD/JPY pair should be a more viable question? Well, that will never be addressed as the MSM is A) too stupid and B) to owned to dare shine a light on the only thing that's keeping the markets and their charade alive at this point.

Let this farce roll right into the coming debt ceiling discussions.Wait, stupid me, we have a tyrant president (who studied Constitutional law) who has a pen and is not afraid to use it no matter what congress says. We will be just fine, and whomever votes for him or his party will get whatever assistance they need no matter the cost. What's adding another trillion or two to the budget? potus has already spent moar than all presidents before him COMBINED. Never let a good crisis go to waste, right? I mean when you (potus) have your opponent (America) on two broken legs and blinded, you go for the kill shot right?

Don't forget your new buzzword Amerika - Capital Controls. They are coming. They have spent almost all the "future" money they can. There is only one place left to come for moar - your bank accounts.

On to the lie -

Minis 60m - Pretty simple this morning. They have improbably rallied against all odds off the lows thru one resistance (STB's red line of death) backtest and are now facing another. Channeling up (green) price has now reached the backtest resistance point of all backtest resistance points. The upper blue long term (as in upper market resistance off the 2009 lows) resistance and the near term STB bull/bear line here at 1802 is a most severe test for bull and bear alike. Some would call it the top of a 2 wave (in that nasty worthless parlance). This point has the potential to be a incredibly pivotal. You can see in the chart that even after five years its resistance significance remains in play. If it breaks, moar of the same. If it holds and we get a strong reversal here, it should be game over. That's it in a nutshell. The Fed knows this and so do all the other players. This is a MAJOR technical spot.

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 02/10/14 SPX /ES

Bout all that's in "their" way right now news wise is the budget/debt ceiling issue. This slight money problem keeps coming up for some strange reason. I'm not sure why. There are always checks in the checkbook, and it's not like they don't have a printer in the closet.

Taking a look at the US National Debt Clock, it says we're only $17.3 trillion in debt. That's only $150,000 per taxpayer. The good news is that the limited liability per taxpayer is only $1.1 million on the $127 trillion in unfunded liabilities. So, they got this under control and there is no reason to freak out (unless interest rates rise of course and then that huge pile of debt goes up in flames).

This is an election year. Do you think there is any way we're gonna have another shutdown or any bickering over the debt issue? Ever since the fiscal cliff and the super secret congress (or whatever that illegal unconstitutional group was called) met a couple of years ago, there have been no more issues getting an extension passed on government spending. I doubt there will be any issues this time either.

On to the lie -

Minis daily - Strictly looking at resistance points here. Price has made it back thru the backtest of the busted red support STB line of death. Now price is entering this area of critical resistance between 1795 and 1805 that holds everything from the long term blue market resistance diagonal, the 20and 50 dma and the 61% retracement (STB bull/bear line). True bears that believe the top is in should think this would be the best point to short for the long term if they missed the top. In EWT terms, this may be the top of a 2 wave. Thinking and believing are operative words here, cause playing against the Fed in their manipulated market is not a fair game. Let's watch this area closely.

More to come below.

Have a good week.

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 02/08-09/14

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.


It's all falling apart. Everything is held together at this time with lies and those are starting to fall apart. I believe it is just a matter of time now as they can't continue the charade much longer.

To add to the drama - zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 4m

LEW SAYS EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES MAY NOT LAST BEYOND FEB. 27.and thus the bonds are not playing along.

Keep an eye on Sochi for possible events. I suggest #sochiproblems as well for a good laugh.

Keep an eye on Sochi for great laughs like this ultimate WTF? moment - - Russian Police Choir performs 'Get Lucky' at Opening Ceremony 

If you see it post it. I'll be around updating some charts and such.

Minis 4hr - The STB ull/bear line is the 61% retrcaement and that sits right smack dab on the ole blue LT market resistance diagonal (a fantastic place for a final reversal to death).

Have a good weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 02/07/14 SPX /ES

When I saw The Farce Is Complete: Blythe Masters Joining CFTC yesterday I almost blew a gasket. I'm not sure why. It's like, what should surprise any of us at this point anyway? This is just the natural progression playing out, right? It's just a final positioning of players for the powers that be to cover every corrupt corner of their empire.

OK, if you put two and two together (which they are counting on you NOT being able to do), it is not all that hard to read between the lines.

"That's right - you read it correct: "Blythe Masters, head of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s commodities division, is joining an advisory committee of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission" 

They are speaking to us here at STB now.

"It's almost as if they are explicitly telling the handful of people who still care about this entire charade a resounding "fuck you.""

They are sending a clear message. A message so clear that it confirms nearly every theory I've proposed and every rant I've raged over the past five years on STB. The markets are completely controlled. Of course if they control the financial system this leads to question, what else do they completely dominate and control? Defense, medical, food, oil, electricity - are you starting to get the picture? This all leads to the question of constitutional freedom and liberty. This leads to the police state, the NSA, DHS and FEMA. This all leads to the administration and congress. And it was all enabled by the Patriot Act. We've come full circle.

Welcome to the end game. Their final pieces to the puzzle are being put in place. Seriously, they allowed a woman, well Zero Hedge put it best - "this certified commodity market manipulator just got a job with none other than the head commodity regulators in the US? ", from the bank that paid over $25 billion in
corruption related charges to now head the CFTC? You have got to be kidding me?

The new normal, we talk about it all the time here at STB. This is not your father's market anymore. Nothing is real and the Matrix jokes are not that funny anymore. Is anyone questioning my "event" call from 2009 now? "They" are and have been in total control since they blackmailed congress for TARP. The TBTF banks have only gotten bigger and the "controls" that Dodd/Farce were to put into place (that the TBTF's wrote) have not even come close to being implemented.

We can place the blame in many places. Great revolutionary leaders warned and spoke of this exact scenario. Bottom line is greed and corruption dominate the system. America as we know it is dead. Socialist rule is being implemented. Get used to it. #sochiproblems is our destiny. Better yet, prepare your children for it now. They are the ones that will be paying for all this mess.


On to the lie -

Sticking with the corruption theme, and adding a bit more proof (not that it is needed anymore) to my corruption argument - What Did Gold And JPY Know Seconds Before The Jobs Report? You know, why do I even bother to do this anymore - what's the point? I could have very easily for the past two years typed, "Follow the Fed." and left every post at that?

I play the game because I honestly believe that price and technicals WILL get it right. They can not run from price and true natural market forces. Just like we can't screw with mother nature, well the markets have natural forces and rules as well and they will impose their will at some point.

Minis 4hr - All I can say is "whatever" after the jobs report. What a friggin joke, and americans put up with this shit. Unbelieveable!

More to come below when I get calmed down and my thoughts secured. It's complete BS.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 02/06/14 SPX /ES

TWTR - ripped here for some time may finally have found reality. Let me see if I can put this in 140 characters or less - $40 billion market cap and zero profit #insanity. There I did it. I think the poster child for this faux market just sent up some emergency flares. Another sign that the end may be near.

Sochi is about to crank up. I am in full wonder mode regarding this event. From false flag potential to the multiple #fail events and issues that seem to be coming, the games may be more memorable for Russia's lack of sophistication and organization skills than the events.

This is hilarious.

STB has a meeting out of the office this morning, so I'll be in a bit after 10:00. Hold down the fort till I get back.

SPX Daily - I have not shown this in a while. Bout the only thing that indicates a possible turn other than finally being oversold to a degree is the MACD Histogram (one of my favorite early turn indicators). I remain bearish near term, but wonder about a backtest or a small retracement of some sort to relieve a bit of pressure.

Minis Daily - A little different look from the travel computer. What may have stopped price? That yellow diagonal that used to be support for the original topping formation for the run off the 2009 bottom. This diagonal is in a different place on the work computer. Of course there is a yellow support diagonal for that old formation well below price here as well. Bottom line is price still busted my red diagonal of death.

I'm preaching patience and for you to remain calm and cautious. I remain bearish and would like to see 1710 or so before a backtest of busted resistance (or worse). Things are not good at all, but this is still the Fed's market. We've all seen things we never thought possible so far. Why would it be any different here?

I'll post more stuff when I get in.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 02/05/14 SPX /ES

ADP, been there - done that. It matters exactly zero, but that will not stop the prognosticators from singing its praises or touting its predictive ability (NOT). So we missed the target. It was the weather's fault of course (and will remain the weather's fault for months to come - cold or hot).

Why am I discussing or even mentioning this bogus BS? Cause in the game we play, unfortunately we have to take their "data" into consideration, real or not. Employment moves politics, politics moves the administration, the administration moves the Fed, and we all know the Fed moves the market. In the end it is a bogus number that is meant to set in motion a chain of events that they want to happen. It is a tool they use to steer their ship. It is a covert way of being able to implement policy at the "whims" of economic necessities as dictated by the (purely manipulated) data.

In other words it's horse shit - every singe data point is crap  made up to meet their political needs. This is why STB has preached for years for you to follow the Fed. They are part of a consortium that controls the data that sets the policy that drives the markets in whatever direction they want them to go.

Right now things are getting a bit unruly. The taper ON situation that was "priced in" - remember taper ON is bullish! - propaganda is not working in their favor. The markets are expressing their anger at the Fed removing the hopium direct infusion.


After all, in this market that is oozing excessive liquidity - sorry, scratch that - there is no liquidity - how can anything fail? Well, when something like 75% of liquidity is false bids and offers and those bids and offers are there solely (illegally) to hike prices so the central banks can skim off the sheeple's investments, we got problems. See How Many HFT Quotes Does It Take To Execute 3 Trades? (Hint - Over 2 Million)

Bottom line as I have been warning, everyone has an itchy trigger finger. At some point they all will head for the exit at the same time. As predicted here years ago, we did not see true market capitulation in the fall of 2008. We will see it in this next fall, and we're right on the edge of the cliff. As some great person once said, "You ain't seen nothing yet."And to summarize a long story, markets crash, false flags and wars come, marshal law follows that along with retirement plan confiscation (Obummer may or may not become dictator). End of America as we know it (unless we revolt).

On to the lie -

Minis Daily - You have to break these moves up into segments and play them as such. The call from the top the the STB red line of death was the first section. We're in the middle of the the next segment - the move to the next obvious support point the 200dma. Then there is a potential third segment to the 1640 area, but let's not go there yet.

Right now I'm sticking with my 200dma target for this portion of the fall. How we get there is the question? It looks like there is a potential grey wedge that could lead us right there. I really think the red line of death will want a backtest before the 200dma cracks, but then again it is not necessary. You must remember, it all depends on what they want and when (see above). 

Right now it looks like "they" are finally losing control. We're one STB "Event" away from disaster for the markets and the dreaded aftermath that will follow. They know this and so do we. They are swimming with some big sharks down here. I'm not so sure what they are doing allowing this failure. My worst bear case scenario is as discussed - in order for the markets to move to new ATH they needed to create some space so price did not have to move vertically. Of course the only way to stave off this crash will be to un-taper and possibly increase QE. So there are two roads, and we must let the Fed tell us which one they will take - crash and end it all or one last stick save.


Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 2/4/14 SPX /ES

I found this delicious from Zero Hedge this morning,

"There is one main reason why complacency is bad: selloffs. Because as Bank of America explains, in an environment in which there are "too few bears", and where investors are "not prepared for a downside correction", when you do finally get a sell off for whatever reason, with nobody hedged and otherwise prepared for such an outcome, the only logical continuation is piling on until one gets selling exhaustion. And in a world in which hedge fund leverage is about 500%, by the time exhaustion comes, there will be very few left standing."

So few get it. So many have their heads stuck so far up their backsides worried about this and that (money, toys, perception) they miss the forest for the trees. Having basically a Fed run covert op with MSM and advisory deception at every turn does not assist John Q. Public identify the situation, but this is not rocket science. Apparently separating reality from fantasy has become increasingly difficult for the average and expert investor alike.

When, as I've shown repeatedly leading up to and at the top, CPC gets this whacked out there is a problem.

Or when Bullish Percent diverges to price like this there is a problem.

Add to that the internals, negative divergences, overthrows and bearish formations that have been begging for this market to turn. Anyway, the market is horrifically and most likely historically lopsided at possibly the worst time for it to be so in history. It's almost like everyone is trying to buy wish this economy back to prosperity, and that ain't the way things work. Soon, everyone will figure out that the Fed has pulled a fast one on them and that the recovery is a lie, and when that happens all those itchy trigger fingers will fire at once.

Minis Daily - All near term and long term support is busted. STB's red line of death has been breached. I'm a bit freaked out, as this should be finally the "it" moment. Of course we're also dealing with a more than desperate Federal Reserve that has a $4 trillion balance sheet and will do anything to protect its precious petro-dollar (although thru their arrogance and ignorance every policy they have done is killing it).STB still fears a market cheering reversal of taper and one last shot at moar QE for the last great stick save. Will this happen or is it over? No one knows, but that is the only fear the bears have left.

Minis Daily - I have no clue what or why price stopped where it did. Perhaps another index that I have not had time to check has a support point (I'll chart them all up today), but the /es simply stopped in the middle of nowhere. Off the top I called the red line of death as the point to watch and if that cracked the 200dma was the next stop. Perhaps we're about to get a backtest of the busted red support?

So much to figure and discuss. We'll take that all to the comments section below. Many options here, but bottom line is red wedge support is definitively busted. I've got to get my bearings a bit. I'm a bit shocked the red line of death was breached and the implications that brings with it are tremendous.

There will be some Fed speak later today that could be meaningful, so be watching for this.

More to come below.


Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 02/03/14 SPX /ES

Employment this week. After the disaster 70k print there should be only one way to go. Low hurdle, easy beat and markets applaud is what I'm guessing at this time. ADP Wednesday will add to the confusion and have the market chasing its tail as usual. Who knows? I can guarantee one thing, that the workforce will continue to shrink. 

The other issue this week is we have fed speakers three separate days. The possibilities of mixed signals going into the jobs report should be enough to confuse everyone. There should be plenty of after taper talk as the dust settles from last week. I doubt anyone will be tipping any hats towards future policy at this time, but you never know. 

So, we have markets at critical support junctures, some rowdy bears that have decided to come out of hibernation and the  coming potential for an employment surprise along with Fed speak. If the emerging markets behave, if Japan does not melt down, if China continues to ease and the EU just stays quiet (all of that is asking a lot) then maybe they will be able to hold support here and get a little lift. 

Apparently Japan is refusing to cooperate cause there are Alarms Going Off As 102 Dollar-Yen Support Breached. Fundamentally this is an issue. Technically I feel the 100 area is the line in the sand, so IMO there still treading above critical support. This charts that shows the long term upper market resistance and the rising wedge leading into it suggests it is only a matter of time now before a dreadful reversal comes in the USD/JPY pair.

STB suggested reading - Paul Singer's "Vision" Of The Coming "Riot Point" And The Fed's "Formula For Destruction"

"This is a formula for destruction. The crash of 2008 should have been smoking-gun evidence of the folly of this approach, but every mistake leading up to the crash, especially excessive and “invisible” leverage and interest rates that were too low, has been doubled down upon in the years since.""

On to the lie -

Minis 4hr - Price does the tango with STB's red line of death. If this cracks 1705 would be the next stopping point and then 1635, so the gaping supportless holes they have left via this manufactured run up could lead to a more rapid descent than most are anticipating. I'll be watching the 1760 area like a hawk for critical support. As for upside the blue LT upper market resistance diagonal sits near 1800. 1810 is resistance. 1815 is the STB bull/bear line.

More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!